NASCARpredict’s 2012 Track Predictability Report

As I’ve sifted through the results of my 2012 NASCAR handicapping efforts, I found it interesting to compare my results track-by-track. I figure knowing which tracks I’m best at, and worst at, can only help when it comes time to make fantasy NASCAR and/or NASCAR betting decisions.

So, first here’s a list of each race last year plus the standard deviation between my picks and the actual race results for each:

  1. New Hampshire – 4.69
  2. New Hampshire II – 5.48
  3. Fontana – 6.44
  4. Charlotte II – 6.65
  5. Dover II – 6.71
  6. Richmond II – 7.2
  7. Texas I – 7.21
  8. Kentucky – 7.55
  9. Richmond I – 7.81
  10. Texas II – 7.9
  11. Chicagoland – 8.13
  12. Kansas I – 8.22
  13. Darlington – 8.3
  14. Indy – 8.32
  15. Dover I – 8.62
  16. Charlotte I – 8.66
  17. Homestead – 8.68
  18. Martinsville II – 9.21
  19. Las Vegas – 9.26
  20. Pocono I – 9.53
  21. Pocono II – 9.73
  22. Sonoma – 9.75
  23. Kansas II – 10.01
  24. Martinsville I – 10.21
  25. Bristol II – 10.26
  26. Michigan II – 10.27
  27. Atlanta – 10.3
  28. Phoenix I – 10.63
  29. Phoenix II – 10.9
  30. Michigan I – 10.95
  31. Talladega II – 11.5
  32. Daytona II – 12.06
  33. Watkins Glen – 12.11
  34. Bristol I – 13.19
  35. Talladega I – 13.62
  36. Daytona I – 15.74

One observation: I really nailed New Hampshire last year! Unfortunately, I’m not sure why. I speculate both 2012 New Hampshire races featured very little catastrophe—i.e., there weren’t many wrecks, mechanical failures, pit road blunders, etc. But who knows, maybe there’s something inherently predictable at those tracks as well?

OK, next I looked at how I did per track group:

  1. Flats – 8.51 SD (New Hampshire, Richmond, Indy, Martinsville, Pocono, Phoenix)
  2. Large Ovals – 8.52 (Fontana, Charlotte, Texas, Kentucky, Chicagoland, Kansas, Michigan, Atlanta)
  3. Steeps – 9.29 (Dover, Darlington, Homestead, Las Vegas, Bristol)
  4. Road Courses – 10.93 (Sonoma, Watkins Glen)
  5. Plates – 13.23 (Daytona, Talladega)

The plate tracks are my worst—no surprise there. I also kinda stunk at the road courses, which initially surprised me because it seems like the top 7 or so really kinda run to form at Sonoma and Watkins Glen. I guess the problem comes further back in the pack, where you have widely varying skill levels, ringers, carnage, etc.

Final thought: Check out how my track-by-track results differed from those predicted by Cliff DeJong. He’s got New Hampshire way down at number 11! It’s worth noting a few tracks underwent re-paves last year. That surely shook things up a bit.