I’ve been watching the Kentucky Derby every year since I was a wee lad, and every year I struggle to figure out which horse(s) to bet on. I’ve got a pretty good handle on NASCAR handicapping, but I don’t know jack about horse racing.
Tomorrow will mark the 143rd running of the Derby. This year I put in a little more effort into my pre-race research than usual, and I thought I’d share the results. These aren’t my numbers or data, but they should get you in the ballpark. It’s not just the wisdom of crowds, it’s the wisdom of an expert crowd—that might be even better, right?
OK, first I’ve compiled the opening odds of Mike Battaglia (Churchill Downs’ handicapper), Mike Watchmaker (the Daily Racing Form’s handicapper) and the Bovada sportsbook into a spreadsheet. I then calculated the average odds from all three sources on each horse, and I’ve sorted the spreadsheet from best average odds to worst. If you’re on a small-screen device, scroll the table horizontally with a finger drag to see all the columns: