Early Rankings: Homestead, 2017

Martin Truex Jr photo

Martin Truex Jr. tops my early Homestead driver rankings. (photo courtesy nascar)

Update: I’ve posted my final Homestead driver rankings, which improve upon the below early rankings.

Here are my early driver rankings for this week’s NASCAR Cup race at Homestead. I compiled them by crunching:

  • The loop data for the past 15 Cup races (excluding Watkins Glen and Talladega;
  • the loop data for the past four races;
  • the loop data for the past four races at Homestead;
  • the loop data for the past six races at the other tracks in the Steeps track group (i.e., BristolDarlingtonLas Vegas and Dover);
  • the practice and qualifying data for the past four races at Homestead; and
  • the practice and qualifying data for past six races at the aforementioned Steeps.

The results:

  1. Martin Truex Jr
  2. Kyle Busch
  3. Kevin Harvick
  4. Matt Kenseth
  5. Chase Elliott
  6. Denny Hamlin
  7. Kyle Larson
  8. Brad Keselowski
  9. Jimmie Johnson
  10. Joey Logano Continue reading

DraftKings Driver Values: Phoenix II, 2017

aric almirola photo

To finish the bottom of your DraftKings’ lineups today, take a look at Aric Almirola. (photo courtesy nascar)

Here are my DraftKings driver points and price/point predictions for today’s Phoenix II race. To predict how many DraftKings points each driver will score today, I plugged my final driver rankings for today’s race into my projection model, and the starting lineup. Then, to calculate each driver’s price/point, I simply divided each driver’s price by their predicted points.

The below table lists all drivers available on DraftKings today, and it’s sorted from lowest price/point to highest. If you’re on a small-screen device, scroll the table horizontally with a finger drag to see all the columns.

The table: Continue reading

Final Rankings: Phoenix II, 2017

Kyle Busch photo

Kyle Busch remains on top in my final Phoenix II driver rankings. (photo courtesy nascar)

Here are my final driver rankings for today’s race at Phoenix. I compiled them by crunching the practice and qualifying data from Phoenix on Friday and Saturday, and then melding it with the historical data:

  1. Kyle Busch
  2. Martin Truex Jr
  3. Kevin Harvick
  4. Denny Hamlin
  5. Chase Elliott
  6. Kyle Larson
  7. Matt Kenseth
  8. Ryan Blaney
  9. Brad Keselowski
  10. Joey Logano Continue reading