With the NASCAR Sprint Cup 2013 season in the books, I’ve gone through all my final race rankings this year and begun evaluating how they did compared with all the actual race results. Here are the three areas I’ve looked at first: Continue reading
When I put together this week’s early driver rankings for Homestead, part of the process included calculating the average Driver Ratings from all the loop data piled up over the past 15 races by every Sprint Cup driver. (I used the excellent stats wizard at Fantasy Racing Cheat Sheet to do this, and I excluded the data from the Talladega II and Watkins Glen races.) One thing jumped out at me: Jeff Gordon ranked #2 in this metric!
Here are the top 5: Continue reading
With the NASCAR Sprint Cup 2012 season in the books, I’ve gone through all my final race rankings and begun evaluating how I did this year compared with all the actual race results. The short answer: Pretty good, with some room for improvement.
Here are the three categories I’ve looked at first:
1. Race Winners
In 2012, I picked 9 winners out of the 36 races. I was right 25% of the time, so if I’d been betting each race, I would’ve needed 3-1 odds on each bet to break even for the year.
I think 36 races is too small a sample size to definitively conclude my handicapping method will pick winners 25% of the time, but it’s probably in the ballpark. I’ve begun looking back at my 2011 and 2010 picks, and that will give me 108 races, a much more substantial data sample size. Initial impression: I think my winner pick rate will end up somewhere from 20%–25%. Continue reading