Kez tops my early early Daytona I driver rankings. (photo courtesy nascar)

Update: I’ve now completed my early Daytona rankings, which improve upon these early-early rankings.

Here are my early-early driver rankings for the upcoming Daytona 500. I compiled them by crunching the loop and qualifying data for the past four plate races. I think these two metrics reflect speed, the ability to pass and the ability (and inclination) to run a lot of laps up front, all of which should give me the best chance to get in the ballpark with race-result predictions.

Note: These rankings are rough, especially because I’m not even sure yet what the final entry list will look like. I’ll update the rankings as we work our way through Speedweeks.

OK, here they are:

1. Brad Keselowski
2. Denny Hamlin
3. Joey Logano
4. Kyle Busch
5. Kurt Busch
6. Dale Earnhardt Jr.
7. Ryan Blaney
8. Austin Dillon
9. Matt Kenseth
10. Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
11. Martin Truex Jr.
12. Kyle Larson
13. Chase Elliott
14. Jimmie Johnson
15. Jamie McMurray
16. Kevin Harvick
17. Clint Bowyer
18. Daniel Suarez
19. Erik Jones
20. Trevor Bayne
21. Paul Menard
22. Aric Almirola
23. Kasey Kahne
24. Michael McDowell
25. Ryan Newman
26. Brendan Gaughn
27. Ty Dillon
28. AJ Allmendinger
29. Chris Buescher
30. Danica Patrick
31. Landon Cassill
32. Elliott Sadler
33. Bobby Labonte
34. Gray Gaulding
35. Reed Sorenson
36. Michael Waltrip
37. David Ragan
38. Matt DiBenedetto
39. Cole Whitt
40. David Gilliland
41. Josh Wise
42. Jeffrey Earnhardt