Early Rankings: Homestead, 2016

Matt Kenseth photo

Matt Kenseth tops my early Homestead driver rankings. (photo courtesy nascar)

Update: I’ve posted my final Homestead 2016 driver rankings, which improve upon the below early rankings.

Here are my early driver rankings for this week’s NASCAR Sprint Cup race at Homestead. I compiled them by crunching:

  • The loop data for the past 15 Sprint Cup races (excluding Watkins Glen and Talladega;
  • the loop data for the past four races;
  • the loop data for the past four races at Homestead;
  • the loop data for the past six races at the other tracks in the Steeps track group (i.e., Bristol, Darlington, Las Vegas and Dover);
  • the practice and qualifying data for the past four races at Homestead; and
  • the practice and qualifying data for past six races at the aforementioned Steeps.

The results:

  1. Matt Kenseth
  2. Martin Truex Jr.
  3. Joey Logano
  4. Kyle Busch
  5. Kevin Harvick
  6. Denny Hamlin
  7. Brad Keselowski
  8. Carl Edwards
  9. Jimmie Johnson
  10. Chase Elliott
  11. Kasey Kahne
  12. Kurt Busch
  13. Kyle Larson
  14. Ryan Newman
  15. Alex Bowman
  16. Ryan Blaney
  17. Jamie McMurray
  18. Paul Menard
  19. Austin Dillon
  20. AJ Allmendinger
  21. Greg Biffle
  22. Aric Almirola
  23. Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
  24. Clint Bowyer
  25. Tony Stewart
  26. Trevor Bayne
  27. Casey Mears
  28. Chris Buescher
  29. Danica Patrick
  30. Ty Dillon
  31. Landon Cassill
  32. Michael McDowell
  33. Regan Smith
  34. David Ragan
  35. Brian Scott
  36. Matt DiBenedetto
  37. Dylan Lupton
  38. Michael Annett
  39. Jeffrey Earnhardt
  40. Reed Sorenson
  41. Gray Gaulding

6 thoughts on “Early Rankings: Homestead, 2016”

  2. Jed Henson Post author

    Short answer = yes, but with strong qualifiers. First, KyBu is just a tick behind Logano in my rankings (roughly 0.5% in my points system), and Edwards and JJ are still in the picture (roughly 5% behind). And, I typically give my 3rd place driver only a 10% chance (roughly) of winning a race, so there’s lots of room for the unforeseen to occur. We should know a little more after practice/quals.

  3. Al

    Thanks for all your hard this racing season. I’ve used a lot of your predictions and it has help do great on the challenge boards!

  4. JD

    I found your site on Tuesday and was looking forward to using your DraftKings rankings. Are they going to be published tonight?

  5. Jed Henson Post author

    @ Al: Thanks for the feedback, and you’re welcome!

    @ JD: Sorry I wasn’t able to get the DK info up last night. Should be up within 2 hours this morning.

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