Early Rankings: Dover I, 2016

Kevin Harvick photo

Kevin Harvick tops my early Dover I driver rankings. (photo courtesy nascar)

Update: I’ve posted my final Dover I driver rankings, which improve upon these early rankings.

Here are my early driver rankings for this week’s NASCAR Sprint Cup race at Dover. I compiled them by crunching:

  • The loop data for the past 15 Sprint Cup races (excluding Daytona and Talladega);
  • the loop data for the past four races;
  • the loop data for the past four races at Dover;
  • the loop data for the past six races at the other tracks in the Steeps track group (i.e., BristolDarlingtonLas Vegas and Homestead);
  • the practice and qualifying data for the past four races at Dover; and
  • the practice and qualifying data for past six races at the aforementioned Steeps.

The results:

  1. Kevin Harvick
  2. Carl Edwards
  3. Kyle Busch
  4. Jimmie Johnson
  5. Joey Logano
  6. Brad Keselowski
  7. Matt Kenseth
  8. Denny Hamlin
  9. Kurt Busch
  10. Martin Truex Jr.
  11. Dale Earnhardt Jr.
  12. Kasey Kahne
  13. Kyle Larson
  14. Jamie McMurray
  15. Ryan Newman
  16. Chase Elliott
  17. Austin Dillon
  18. Ryan Blaney
  19. Paul Menard
  20. Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
  21. Greg Biffle
  22. AJ Allmendinger
  23. Aric Almirola
  24. Clint Bowyer
  25. Tony Stewart
  26. Trevor Bayne
  27. Casey Mears
  28. Danica Patrick
  29. David Ragan
  30. Brian Scott
  31. Landon Cassill
  32. Chris Buescher
  33. Michael McDowell
  34. Cole Whitt
  35. Matt DiBenedetto
  36. Michael Annett
  37. Regan Smith
  38. Josh Wise
  39. Jeffrey Earnhardt
  40. Reed Sorenson

5 thoughts on “Early Rankings: Dover I, 2016

  1. Chris

    Harvick is due. I keep hesitating on putting Truex and Kenseth at the top because of all the bad luck they’ve had, but, the minute I don’t, they’ll be first and second. Logano looked good in Kansas until that freak crash, wrong place, wrong time. One day David Ragan and BK Racing will make a run, I think. I try to add him or Dibendetto to my lineup. If Ragan was with Joe Gibbs Racing, he’d be in the top 10 more often than not.

  2. Jed Henson Post author

    Agreed that Harvick should strike soon. It does appear he’s no longer as dominant, however.

    I feel a bit bad for Ragan stuck in a relatively crappy car. Agreed that he’s decent and would show much better in a top-line car.

    Regan Smith, too. I thought the 7 would be better than 30th every week.

  3. Chris

    Agreed. Harvick doesn’t seem as dominant now, he’s always “there”, but not “right there” as before. He got the pole today with the rain and all, but who knows. Stenhouse at five struck me as odd. I was chatting with a guy at work today about Stenhouse about how he (Stenhouse) just seems to randomly hit walls and other odd stuff. Maybe Ricky is thinking too much about Danica…way in the back. hah

    Yeah, it seems like Regan Smith should finish higher than he does. A couple years back I thought he and guys like Ragan and Gilliland would be cruising to top ten finishes, but nope. One day David (or a similar driver) will slay that Joe Gibbs Racing machine for a day….I hope.

  4. Anonymous

    I look on this post to see what play’s you guys are going to pick. You guy’s are never right. So Harvick has no chance

  5. Jed Henson Post author

    Nah, I’d say he has around a 20% chance to win today. That’s how often my winners have hit over the past few years.

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