Dale Jr. tops my early EARLY Daytona 500 driver rankings. (photo courtesy nascar)

Here are my early early early driver rankings for the upcoming Daytona 500. I compiled them by crunching the loop data for the past four plate races and the qualifying data from past two races at Talladega (qualifying was rained out at both Daytona races last year). I think these two metrics reflect speed, the ability to pass and the ability (and inclination) to run a lot of laps up front, all of which should give me the best chance to get in the ballpark with race-result predictions.

Note: These rankings are rough, not least of which because I’m not even sure yet what the final entry list will look like. I’ll update the rankings as we work our way through Speedweeks.

OK, here they are:

1. Dale Earnhardt Jr.
2. Jimmie Johnson
3. Kevin Harvick
4. Denny Hamlin
5. Kasey Kahne
6. Paul Menard
7. Kurt Busch
8. Brad Keselowski
9. Joey Logano
10. Matt Kenseth
11. Ryan Blaney
12. Carl Edwards
13. Clint Bowyer
14. Jamie McMurray
15. Kyle Busch
16. Austin Dillon
17. Kyle Larson
18. Chase Elliott
19. Martin Truex Jr.
20. Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
21. Greg Biffle
22. David Ragan
23. Trevor Bayne
24. Ryan Newman
25. Danica Patrick
26. Casey Mears
27. Aric Almirola
28. Justin Allgaier
29. Brian Scott
30. Michael McDowell
31. Chris Buescher
32. Michael Annett
33. Cole Whitt
34. David Gilliland
35. AJ Allmendinger
36. Michael Waltrip
37. Jeffrey Earnhardt
38. Alex Bowman
39. Landon Cassill
40. Matt DiBenedetto
41. J.J. Yeley
42. Josh Wise
43. Jeb Burton