DraftKings Driver Values: Dover II, 2015

kasey kahne photo

Kasey Kahne offers terrific DraftKings value today. (photo courtesy nascar)

Here are my DraftKings driver points and price/point predictions for today’s race at Dover. To predict how many DraftKings points each driver will score today, I plugged my driver rankings for today’s race into my projection model, and the starting lineup. Then, to calculate each driver’s price/point, I simply divided each driver’s price by their predicted points.

My points projection model is a work in progress, so don’t take the below info as gospel. Still, I think it can provide big-picture help when crafting DraftKings lineups.

Note: The below table lists all drivers running today, and it’s sorted from lowest price/point to highest. If you’re on a small screen device, scroll the table horizontally with a finger drag to see all the columns:

[table caption=”” width=”450″ colwidth=”50|20|20|20″ colalign=”left|center|center|center”]
Drivers,DraftKings Price,Predicted Points,Price/Point
Kevin Harvick,”$11,000″,103.41,$106.38
Brad Keselowski,”$9,900″,78.57,$126.00
Joey Logano,”$9,600″,68.91,$139.31
Kasey Kahne,”$7,600″,49.85,$152.46
Denny Hamlin,”$9,800″,57.36,$170.85
Jimmie Johnson,”$11,200″,65.00,$172.31
Carl Edwards,”$9,500″,53.58,$177.32
Kyle Larson,”$8,100″,45.53,$177.91
Dale Earnhardt Jr,”$8,500″,47.51,$178.90
Ricky Stenhouse Jr,”$5,800″,31.60,$183.56
Kurt Busch,”$9,000″,47.59,$189.13
Kyle Busch,”$10,200″,50.69,$201.21
Aric Almirola,”$6,100″,29.29,$208.24
Jamie McMurray,”$6,800″,32.41,$209.83
Matt Kenseth,”$10,100″,45.16,$223.66
Clint Bowyer,”$6,900″,29.78,$231.72
Martin Truex Jr,”$9,300″,39.71,$234.22
Jeff Gordon,”$8,400″,34.36,$244.46
Greg Biffle,”$6,700″,26.90,$249.10
Tony Stewart,”$6,700″,24.89,$269.22
David Ragan,”$6,400″,23.59,$271.26
Ryan Newman,”$6,900″,24.00,$287.49
AJ Allmendinger,”$6,100″,20.75,$293.99
Paul Menard,”$6,800″,22.94,$296.41
Justin Allgaier,”$5,700″,19.13,$297.96
Austin Dillon,”$7,200″,23.29,$309.20
Michael Annett,”$5,500″,16.31,$337.18
Sam Hornish Jr,”$6,000″,17.44,$344.13
Casey Mears,”$6,000″,15.47,$387.97
Cole Whitt,”$5,600″,13.93,$402.02
Trevor Bayne,”$5,900″,14.04,$420.22
David Gilliland,”$5,700″,12.35,$461.40
Alex Bowman,”$5,500″,11.31,$486.22
Josh Wise,”$5,500″,11.21,$490.78
Danica Patrick,”$5,900″,11.09,$531.95
J.J. Yeley,”$5,300″,8.13,$652.23
Landon Cassill,”$5,700″,7.29,$781.81
Brett Moffitt,”$5,400″,6.23,$867.09
Matt DiBenedetto,”$5,500″,5.19,”$1,060.60″
Reed Sorenson,”$5,400″,4.08,”$1,322.23″
Timmy Hill,”$5,300″,1.02,”$5,190.98″
Alex Kennedy,”$5,300″,-1.94,n/a
Jeb Burton,”$5,400″,-0.96,n/a
[/table]

2 thoughts on “DraftKings Driver Values: Dover II, 2015

  1. Ray Miller

    Thank you for all the work it takes you each race. Can’t imagine the procedure, records, it must take.
    Do know you rankings are predictions based on best prior info. Most importantly, your completeness gives us a base for all formats. Just like actual race results, a list of 43. Works for all fantasy games.
    Wondering after practices/qualifying and listening to driver interviews, how much influence to your final predicts. Keep up the good work.

  2. Jed Henson Post author

    Thanks Ray! And good question. After practice/qualifying each week, I collect that data and merge it with the early rankings data. During that merge, I weight the new data from 35%-45% (compared to the early data) depending on the practice/Q format that week, whether they got all the practice/Q in, etc. I weight it that way because a study I performed in 2013 says that’s optimum. I wrote that study up, and if you really want to dive in, here’s the link:

    https://nascarpredict.com/2013/01/20/nascar-handicapping-how-much-is-practice-qualifying-worth/

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