Here are my early driver rankings for this week’s race at Talladega. I compiled them by crunching the loop data for the past four plate races, the qualifying data from last year’s Daytona 500 (because that’s the last sorta-recent plate race in which qualifying didn’t involve drafting), and the loop data for this year’s Daytona Duels. Those metrics reflect speed, the ability to pass and the ability (and inclination) to run a lot of laps up front:
- Joey Logano
- Kurt Busch
- Kasey Kahne
- Jimmie Johnson
- Greg Biffle
- Denny Hamlin
- Dale Earnhardt Jr
- Martin Truex Jr
- Kevin Harvick
- Jeff Gordon
- Paul Menard
- Austin Dillon
- Clint Bowyer
- Sam Hornish Jr.
- Danica Patrick
- Casey Mears
- Brad Keselowski
- Matt Kenseth
- Aric Almirola
- Kyle Larson
- Michael Annett
- David Ragan
- Jamie McMurray
- David Gilliland
- Landon Cassill
- Carl Edwards
- Ryan Blaney
- Chris Buescher
- Justin Allgaier
- Trevor Bayne
- Brian Scott
- Ricky Stenhouse Jr
- Brendan Gaughan
- Michael McDowell
- Cole Whitt
- AJ Allmendinger
- Ryan Newman
- Matt Dibenedetto
- Alex Bowman
- Tony Stewart
- Josh Wise
- Bobby Labonte
- J.J Yeley
- Michael Waltrip
- Kenny Wallace
- Jeb Burton
How much do you apply your own Gut or opinion? rmiller922@att.net
I ask because I doubt you really rank 47 14 31 where you show them.
thought u may find this interesting.
http://www.fantasynascarpreview.com/2015-geico-500-early-fantasy-rankings/
Hi Ray! I try to apply zero gut feel to my rankings and let only the numbers do the talking. In these early ‘Dega rankings, I actually didn’t even notice those guys were ranked so poorly. I just cranked the numbers and posted the list.
I admit, it looks disturbing now that I see it! Part of the deal is, the plate races have become even less predictable due to group qualifying. And, the fact is Stewart and Newman have flat sucked the past few plate weekends.
We’ll see if moving back to solo qualifying on the plates helps improve plate predictability this week. I suspect Stewart and Newman will rise after qualifying. And, I’m not so rigid that I consider ONLY the numbers. I do look at other folks’ rankings (e.g., FNP, Accupredict, etc.) and sometimes tweak my rankings if I see something convincing. The reason: I recognize the numbers don’t capture everything. And the wisdom of crowds is a real thing.
But never forget: Gut feel is what keeps the lights on in all those giganto casinos in Vegas.