Here are my super early driver rankings for the first race of the 2014 season, the Daytona 500. These rankings are so early, the entry list isn’t even out yet. So, it likely includes a bunch of guys who won’t run, and misses a few others.

Anyway, I compiled them by crunching the qualifying data for the two 2013 races at Daytona and the 2013 spring race at Talladega (rain washed out qualifying at Talladega II last year or I would’ve included that, too). I also crunched the loop data for all four plate races last year. I think these two metrics reflect speed, the ability to pass and the ability (and inclination) to run a lot of laps up front, all of which should give me the best chance to get in the ballpark with race-result predictions.

My results:

1. Jimmie Johnson
2. Matt Kenseth
3. Dale Earnhardt Jr.
4. Kyle Busch
5. Joey Logano
6. Martin Truex Jr.
7. Danica Patrick
8. Clint Bowyer
9. Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
10. Paul Menard
11. Carl Edwards
12. Ryan Newman
13. Kasey Kahne
14. Marcos Ambrose
15. Mark Martin
16. Jeff Gordon
17. Brad Keselowski
18. Denny Hamlin
19. Greg Biffle
20. Jamie McMurray
21. Tony Stewart
22. Trevor Bayne
23. Aric Almirola
24. Casey Mears
25. Jeff Burton
26. Michael Waltrip
27. Kurt Busch
28. Justin Allgaier
29. Regan Smith
30. Austin Dillon
31. Kevin Harvick
32. Juan Pablo Montoya
33. David Gilliland
34. David Ragan
35. David Stremme
36. AJ Allmendinger
37. Michael McDowell
38. Scott Speed
39. Bobby Labonte
40. Josh Wise
41. Dave Blaney
42. J.J. Yeley
43. Travis Kvapil
44. David Reutimann
45. Terry Labonte
46. Landon Cassill
47. Joe Nemechek
48. Cole Whitt
49. Elliott Sadler
50. Tony Raines
51. Mike Bliss(i)
52. Brian Keselowski