Final Rankings: Kansas I, 2013

Here are my final driver rankings for today’s race at Kansas. I compiled them by crunching the practice and qualifying data from Kansas on Friday and Saturday, and then melding it with the historical data:

  1. Matt Kenseth
  2. Kyle Busch
  3. Kasey Kahne
  4. Martin Truex Jr.
  5. Greg Biffle
  6. Carl Edwards
  7. Mark Martin
  8. Clint Bowyer
  9. Jimmie Johnson
  10. Brad Keselowski
  11. Aric Almirola
  12. Ryan Newman
  13. Dale Earnhardt Jr.
  14. Kevin Harvick
  15. Brian Vickers
  16. Sam Hornish Jr.
  17. Tony Stewart
  18. Paul Menard
  19. Joey Logano
  20. Marcos Ambrose
  21. Kurt Busch
  22. Jamie McMurray
  23. Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
  24. Juan Pablo Montoya
  25. Jeff Gordon
  26. Jeff Burton
  27. Elliott Sadler
  28. Regan Smith
  29. Casey Mears
  30. David Ragan
  31. Travis Kvapil
  32. David Gilliland
  33. Bobby Labonte
  34. Danica Patrick
  35. David Reutimann
  36. Landon Cassill
  37. David Stremme
  38. J.J. Yeley
  39. Dave Blaney
  40. Michael McDowell
  41. Timmy Hill
  42. Mike Bliss
  43. Josh Wise

6 thoughts on “Final Rankings: Kansas I, 2013

  1. Jed Henson Post author

    Thanks Erik! I admit it’s nice to have three winners in the bag already. But clearly there’s a lotta luck in that. My hot streak could turn cold this week.

    And, I think it’s easier to pick the top 5, say, than the fourth 5 (15th-20th). The top cars tend to run up front where there’s less chance they’ll suffer damage. They get better pit stalls. And we tend to get more info/coverage of them during practice/qualifying. Just a theory, though. Maybe later this year I’ll dig into the numbers and check on whether my top 5 picks are actually doing better than my fourth 5.

  2. Jed Henson Post author

    Bynum, excluding Daytona I from both years, I’m running slightly worse this year so far: 9.79 SD this year vs. 9.36 SD last year.

    This year I crushed Phoenix, Vegas and Bristol compared to last year, and was a little better at Martinsville. I started thinking I was the man. But then I got pummeled at Fontana, Texas and Kansas.

    Given the fact they’re running a completely new car, I feel OK with the performance so far. I’ll keep tabs on it and post updates periodically.

  3. Bynum

    Not sure how easy it would be to do, but if you try to exclude accidents how are the models performing? Maybe exclude a driver if laps completed is < (total laps * 0.9) or status is Accident?

    For example for Fontana you had Hamlin ranked 4th. He very well should have finished 1st or 2nd but with the last lap shenanigans he finished 25th. Same would apply to Mark Martin for that race, ranked 7th finished 37th. I don't think anyone expects a model to account for human behavior or mechanical breakdown.

  4. Jed Henson Post author

    Bynum, I’ll think on this because it would certainly be nice to know how I’m doing minus crashes. All catastrophes, actually: crashes, mechanical failures, pit road problems, penalties, etc. The trick is figuring out something that’s consistent and comprehensive.

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