Here are my final driver rankings for tonight’s race at Richmond. I compiled them by crunching the qualifying data from Richmond on Friday, and then melding it with the historical data (once again the practice data is screwy, so I discarded it):
Here are my mid-week driver rankings for this week’s NASCAR Sprint Cup race at Richmond. I compiled them by crunching:
The results:
Here are my final driver rankings for this weekend’s race at Richmond. I compiled them by crunching the practice and qualifying data from Richmond Friday, and then melding it with the historical data:
Here are my mid-week driver rankings for this week’s NASCAR Sprint Cup race at the short-flat track in Richmond, Va. I compiled them by crunching the loop, practice and qualifying data for the 2011 races at Richmond, Phoenix, New Hampshire and Martinsville:
Here are my final driver rankings for tonight’s race at Richmond. I compiled them by crunching the practice and qualifying data from Richmond yesterday, and then melding it with the historical data:
Here are my mid-week driver rankings for this week’s NASCAR Sprint Cup race at Richmond, Va. I compiled them by crunching the loop, practice and qualifying data for the fall 2010 race at Richmond, the February 2011 race at Phoenix and the April 2011 race at Martinsville:
Carl Edwards will start on the pole tonight. (Photo Rusty Jarrett/Getty Images for NASCAR)
The Sprint Cup teams got in both practices and qualifying at Richmond yesterday under warm, sunny skies. Today’s forecast on Weather.com calls for more rain-free weather today and tonight, and that boosts predictability.
In addition, according to the Goodyear tire notes on Jayski.com, the teams are running the same tires they did in the May race, and that boosts predictability as well because it allows the teams to lean heavily on their notes from the May race. Finally, we already had solid historical data to review prior to yesterday’s preliminaries, which I discussed in my mid-week preview.
In that preview, I rated this race’s predictability above average, and I don’t see anything to alter that view. (In fact, I would rate predicability even higher if practice and qualifying hadn’t shaken up my rankings so much—see below.)Fantasy players can therefore be a bit aggressive with start saving, and bettors can consider taking slightly tighter lines than normal.
Handicapping Richmond II
I ran the numbers from the two practices and qualifying to produce new rankings, and then I merged those rankings with my mid-week rankings (heavily weighting the results toward the new rankings). I tweaked those results per the 10-lap averages from both practices, and then I did one last fine-tuning after reading the opinions of other online experts and considering starting positions.
I came up with this top five: Continue reading
Kyle Busch got past Jeff Gordon on the final restart to win at Richmond in May. (Photo Al Bello/Getty Images)
The Sprint Cup circuit heads back to Richmond, Va., for another Saturday night race. Richmond International Raceway (RIR) is a .75-mile track with 14 degrees of banking in the turns, and that lumps it into the short-flat track category (Phoenix measures 1 mile long with 11 and 9 degrees of banking, for example). It typically produces good racing, and from a fantasy or handicapping perspective, it offers decent predictability, too.
We have a decent amount of historical data from the May race at RIR, although the Saturday night schedule squeezed practice and qualifying into Friday, cutting one practice session from a typical weekend (from three down to two). We also have solid data from the other 2010 short-flat races run so far this year at New Hampshire, Martinsville and Phoenix. Continue reading
Kyle Busch takes the win away from Jeff Gordon on the final restart at Richmond last night. (Photo Al Bello/Getty Images)
All my favorites in last night’s race ran up to my expectations:
1. Kyle Busch had the car to beat much of the early portion of the race, and then he got past Jeff Gordon on the final restart to win it.
2. Jeff Gordon had the car to beat the second half of the race and came home second.
3. Ryan Newman had a top 10 car all night and finished eighth.
4. Jimmie Johnson had a top 15 car early, but the team improved it throughout. He finished 10th.
5. Kevin Harvick had a top car throughout the night and finished third.
Two surprises: 1) Jeff Burton had a great car as the track cooled, which I didn’t foresee, and 2) Carl Edwards worked his Continue reading
Kyle Busch grabbed the pole for tonight's race at Richmond. (Photo Tom Pennington/Getty Images for NASCAR)
The Sprint Cup teams got in all the practice they’re gonna get for tonight’s race at Richmond, and the preliminary action shakes up my rankings a little. Before I get into the handicapping, though, I’ll go through some of the factors that affect race predictability.
Tires
According to the Goodyear Tire Notes posted on Jayski.com’s Richmond Race Info page, the teams are running the same tire they did at both Richmond races last year. That increases predictability because it means the crew chiefs’ notes from last year’s Richmond races have more value than they would if a new tire was in play.
The Weather
In my Race Preview: Richmond post, I noted that the weather forecast called for steady, clear and warm conditions on Friday and Saturday. That forecast has held true so far, and it appears the good, consistent conditions will hold through tonight’s race.
The Track
The asphalt is now good and rubbered in, and with no rain so far and no rain on the horizon, it appears the teams will face a consistent level of rubber on the track, which is good for predictability.
On the other hand, as I discussed in my Preview, the track will undergo a big Continue reading
