Tag Archives: race preview

Race Preview Update: Fontana II

Jamie McMurray nabbed the pole for Sunday's race. (Photo Jason Smith/Getty Images for NASCAR)

As expected, the Fontana, Calif., area enjoyed excellent, consistent weather Friday and Saturday, so the NASCAR Sprint Cup teams got in all three practice sessions and qualifying. To handicap Sunday’s race, I crunched the numbers from those sessions to produce initial rankings, and then I merged those rankings with the historical rankings I produced earlier this week (weighting the results heavily toward the initial rankings).

Finally, I tweaked the results by considering starting positions, 10-lap averages and the opinions of another online expert. I came up with this top five:

Greg Biffle
Jamie McMurray
Jeff Gordon
Jimmie Johnson
Matt Kenseth

I liked Biffle in my mid-week preview (I rated him #4), but I didn’t imagine he could dislodge Johnson from the top spot in the prelims. Biffle looked very good on short and long runs in practice, however, and he’s got a decent starting position (he rolls off sixth). Add all that to his strong historical numbers, and the Bif is my pick to win.

McMurray vaulted way up my rankings thanks to lightning fast one-lap numbers in all four sessions, excellent 10-lap averages on Saturday, and his most-excellent starting position (yes, he’s on the pole). Continue reading →

Race Preview: Fontana II

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Jimmie Johnson gets his car serviced during his winning run at Fontana in February. (Photo Jason Smith/Getty Images for NASCAR)

This week the series heads back to Fontana, Calif., for a run on Auto Club Speedway. Auto Club Speedway is a 2-mile, D-shaped track with only 14 degrees of banking in the turns. These specs place it near those of the tracks at Michigan, Kansas and Chicagoland. The series has already run at the aforementioned tracks this season (including twice at Michigan), so we have substantial historical data (i.e., practice, qualifying and race data) at our disposal this week, and that alone improves this race’s predictability quite a bit. In addition, Weather.com says the speedway area should receive clear, warm, consistent weather all race weekend, further bolstering predictability.

However, like Michigan and Pocono, Fontana is a big, big track, and that increases that chances fuel mileage and the accompanying pit-road tactics will come into play during the race. That decreases predictability because pit-road/fuel-mileage tactics can really shake up the finishing order if they come into play. Continue reading →

Race Preview Update: Kansas

Race Preview: Kansas

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This week the series heads to Kansas City, Kan., for a run on Kansas Speedway. Kansas Speedway is a 1.5-mile, D-shaped track with only 15 degrees of banking in the turns, making it the shallowest of the cookie cutter tracks. These stats place it near the specs of Michigan, Fontana and Chicagoland. The series has already run at the aforementioned tracks this season (including twice at Michigan), so we have substantial historical data (i.e., practice, qualifying and race data) at our disposal this week, and that alone improves this race’s predictability quite a bit. Continue reading →

Race Preview Update: Dover II

Race Preview: Dover II

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Kyle Busch led six times at Dover this spring, and Jimmie Johnson led eight. (Photo Todd Warshaw/Getty Images)

The Sprint Cup series returns to Dover, Del., this week for a run on Dover International Speedway, a 1 mile, steep-banked, concrete track known as The Monster Mile. We should enjoy decent predictability this weekend because 1) we have solid 2010 practice, qualifying and race data to review from Dover and two other shortish-banked tracks, Bristol and Darlington, and 2) Weather.com Dover will receive dry, warm weather on Friday and Saturday, with a chance of showers on Sunday.

Handicapping Dover
I examined the practice, qualifying and race data from all the 2010 races at Dover, Bristol and Darlington to produce historical rankings. Then I looked at the same data for just the Dover race in May, and I merged those results with the historical rankings, thereby making the rankings much more Dover-specific.

I tweaked those initial rankings with the opinions of other online NASCAR handicappers and my own race-recap notes from the May Dover race to come up with this top 13: Continue reading →

Race Preview Update: New Hampshire II

Race Preview: New Hampshire II

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The 48 and 2 dueled late in New Hampshire's June race, but ultimately Johnson tossed the Miller Lite car aside like an empty beer can. (Photo Drew Hallowell/Getty Images for NASCAR)

The NASCAR Sprint Cup series kicks off the Chase with a return to Loudon, N.H., this week for a run at New Hampshire Motor Speedway (NHMS). NHMS is an oval measuring roughly 1 mile in length with little banking in the turns. These specs place NHMS squarely in the short-flat track category, which includes Martinsville, Phoenix and Richmond. Fantasy NASCAR players and those handicapping NASCAR therefore have a healthy amount of historical data to review this week, and lots of data generally improves race predictability.

In addition, NHMS is bigger than the congested, bumper-car tracks at Martinsville and Bristol, and smaller than the massive flat tracks (e.g., Michigan, Pocono, etc.) that tend to promote fuel-mileage tactics. Weather.com calls for morning showers on Friday, but consistent, warm, dry weather for the rest of the race weekend. And Jayski’s Goodyear Tire Notes indicate the Sprint Cup cars will run the same tires this weekend as they did in New Hampshire earlier this season and both races last season, giving a final boost to predictability. Continue reading →

Race Preview Update: Richmond II

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Carl Edwards will start on the pole tonight. (Photo Rusty Jarrett/Getty Images for NASCAR)

The Sprint Cup teams got in both practices and qualifying at Richmond yesterday under warm, sunny skies. Today’s forecast on Weather.com calls for more rain-free weather today and tonight, and that boosts predictability.

In addition, according to the Goodyear tire notes on Jayski.com, the teams are running the same tires they did in the May race, and that boosts predictability as well because it allows the teams to lean heavily on their notes from the May race. Finally, we already had solid historical data to review prior to yesterday’s preliminaries, which I discussed in my mid-week preview.

In that preview, I rated this race’s predictability above average, and I don’t see anything to alter that view. (In fact, I would rate predicability even higher if practice and qualifying hadn’t shaken up my rankings so much—see below.)Fantasy players can therefore be a bit aggressive with start saving, and bettors can consider taking slightly tighter lines than normal.

Handicapping Richmond II
I ran the numbers from the two practices and qualifying to produce new rankings, and then I merged those rankings with my mid-week rankings (heavily weighting the results toward the new rankings). I tweaked those results per the 10-lap averages from both practices, and then I did one last fine-tuning after reading the opinions of other online experts and considering starting positions.

I came up with this top five: Continue reading →

Race Preview: Richmond II

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Kyle Busch got past Jeff Gordon on the final restart to win at Richmond in May. (Photo Al Bello/Getty Images)

The Sprint Cup circuit heads back to Richmond, Va., for another Saturday night race. Richmond International Raceway (RIR) is a .75-mile track with 14 degrees of banking in the turns, and that lumps it into the short-flat track category (Phoenix measures 1 mile long with 11 and 9 degrees of banking, for example). It typically produces good racing, and from a fantasy or handicapping perspective, it offers decent predictability, too.

We have a decent amount of historical data from the May race at RIR, although the Saturday night schedule squeezed practice and qualifying into Friday, cutting one practice session from a typical weekend (from three down to two). We also have solid data from the other 2010 short-flat races run so far this year at New Hampshire, Martinsville and Phoenix. Continue reading →