Here are my final driver rankings for Sunday’s race at Pocono. I compiled them by crunching the practice and qualifying data from Pocono Friday and Saturday, and then melding it with the historical loop, practice and qualifying data:
Here are my mid-week driver rankings for this week’s NASCAR Sprint Cup race at the big-flat track at Pocono. I compiled them by crunching the loop, practice and qualifying data for the August 2010 race at Pocono and this year’s races at Fontana and Kansas:
Greg Biffle and Sam Hornish Jr. prepare to duel for the win on the final restart. (Al Bello/Getty Images)
Red flags, rain and pit tactics provided viewers with an exciting finish to Sunday’s race at Pocono. With 40-ish laps to go, Jeff Gordon seemingly had the race in the bag, but a caution flag for rain prompted numerous cars to scramble for track position on pit road. Gordon took four tires, but a number of cars took two, some took none and Sam Hornish Jr. didn’t even pit! Greg Biffle eventually got around Hornish with his two new tires for the win.
My picks were pretty strong but fared so-so:
Jeff Burton pulls into the garage after turning the fastest lap in practice Saturday. (Photo Chris Trotman/Getty Images for NASCAR)
As expected, Pocono Raceway enjoyed good weather Friday and today, allowing the NASCAR Sprint Cup teams to get in all three practices and qualifying. Fantasy NASCAR players and handicappers therefore have good data to analyze, and that’s always good for predictability. Plus, according to Jayski’s Goodyear Tire Notes (scroll down to the bottom of the Pocono Race Info page), the teams are running the same tire they ran in the June race, and that’s good for predictability, too, because it’s one less variable the teams must consider.
However, as feared, Mother Nature is messing with Pocono today. According to Weather.com at 9:00 a.m. ET, it’s currently raining at the track, and that in itself will alter the track from what the teams saw on Saturday. In addition, there’s a 40% of rain hitting the track throughout the day, so there’s a significant chance we’ll see rain interfere with or even stop the race, and that could give us a wild-card winner. Continue reading
Hamlin, Stewart, Kyle Busch and Harvick battle late in June's Pocono race. They went on to sweep the top four spots.
This week the NASCAR Sprint Cup series returns to Long Pond, Pa., for another run at Pocono Raceway, a 2.5-mile, triangle-shaped track. The series just ran here in June, so fantasy NASCAR players and handicappers have current data to review. In fact, I think the practice, qualifying and race data from the June race at Pocono plus the same data from last week’s soiree at Indianapolis (another giant, flat track) is enough, allowing us to ignore data from other big flat tracks, such as Fontana, Chicagoland and Kansas.
This week the Sprint Cup teams will follow the typical preliminary schedule: one practice and qualifying on Friday, two more practices on Saturday, and then the race on Sunday afternoon. According to Weather.com at press time, Friday and Saturday should feature clear, sunny skies, so we should get good practice and qualifying data to review in addition to the solid historical data. Continue reading
The 11 nailed down another victory on Sunday at Pocono. (Photo Geoff Burke/Getty Images for NASCAR)
After an initial rain delay, the Pocono race got underway and went the distance with no further interference from the sky. Various shenanigans at the end—i.e., pit-road tactics, multiple double-file restarts, and a big crash—shook up the finishing order a bit, but on the whole there were few surprises yesterday.
Jimmie Johnson: Johnson had a very strong car but was compromised by a terrible starting position. He climbed through the field throughout the race but never quite got to the front. He finished fifth.
Denny Hamlin: As expected, Hamlin also had a terrific car, and he took the trophy.
Juan Pablo Montoya: The 42 was fast, but not quite as fast as expected. He had a chance to take the lead in the closing laps (thanks primarily to pit tactics), but he couldn’t get there. He slipped back to eighth for the finish.
Clint Bowyer: Bowyer was the class of the field in the first half, but he lost the lead on pit road, and he wasn’t quite as good after that stop. He then slapped the wall and seemed to get a little slower. He managed to bring ‘er home ninth, however.
Kyle Busch: The 18 was terrific, but not quite as fast as Hamlin. He nabbed second place.
Off to Michigan, another big-flat track. Stay tuned for my race preview.
The 48 looked tough in practice yesterday. (Photo Chris Trotman/Getty Images for NASCAR)
The rain forecast for yesterday at Pocono did not materialize, so the teams got in both practices. With the data from those two practices, plus the data from practice and qualifying on Friday, plus all the historical data I noted in my race preview, we’ve got a pretty good picture of who should be fast in today’s race.
Before I get to the data analysis, though, a few updates on two prediction factors: tires and weather. According to the Goodyear Tire Notes section on Jayski’s Pocono Race info page, the teams are running the same tires they ran last year in both Pocono races. That’s one less variable for the crew chiefs to worry about, and fewer variables mean increased predictability. Continue reading
Tony Stewart leads the field during a restart in last spring's Pocono race. (Photo Todd Warshaw/Getty Images)
This week the NASCAR Sprint Cup series heads to Pocono Raceway, the 2.5-mile, triangular track in Long Pond, Pa. This track’s coat-hanger shape sets it apart on the circuit, but for handicapping purposes, we can loosely group it with the other big-flat tracks (i.e., Indy, California, Michigan, Chicagoland, and Kansas) and compile a substantial amount of historical data. Generally speaking, having a large amount of historical data provides good predictability because it increases sample size, and the larger the sample size, the less impact a luck event (e.g., a blown engine) has on your analysis.
Further bolstering predicability, this week the Sprint Cup teams will follow the typical preliminary schedule: one practice and qualifying on Friday, two more practices on Saturday, and then the race on Sunday afternoon. Continue reading
