Here are my final driver rankings for this weekend’s race at New Hampshire. I compiled them by crunching the practice and qualifying data from New Hampshire Friday and Saturday, and then melding it with the historical data:
Here are my mid-week driver rankings for this week’s NASCAR Sprint Cup race at the short-flat track at New Hampshire. I compiled them by crunching the loop, practice and qualifying data for the 2011 races at New Hampshire, Martinsville and Richmond:
Here are my final driver rankings for this weekend’s race at New Hampshire. I compiled them by crunching the practice and qualifying data from New Hampshire Friday and Saturday, and then melding it with the historical data:
Here are my mid-week driver rankings for this week’s NASCAR Sprint Cup race at the short-flat track in New Hampshire. I compiled them by crunching the loop, practice and qualifying data for the fall 2010 race at New Hampshire, and the spring 2011 races at Martinsville, Richmond and Phoenix:
Clint Bowyer had plenty of reason to smile during practice: The 33 looked like greased lightning. (Photo Jason Smith/Getty Images for NASCAR)
The Sprint Cup teams got in all three practices and qualifying at New Hampshire Motor Speedway Friday and Saturday, providing handicappers a plentiful amount of prelim data to review. Add that data to the solid historical data from the earlier races at New Hampshire and other short-flat tracks this year, plus the warm-dry weather prediction for today at Weather.com, and I think all signs point to above-average predictability for today’s race.
Fantasy players should therefore generally abstain from saving starts today, and bettors can consider taking slightly tighter lines than normal.
Handicapping Richmond II
I ran the numbers from the three practices and qualifying to produce new rankings, and then I merged those rankings with my mid-week rankings (heavily weighting the results toward the new rankings). I tweaked those results per the 10-lap averages from both practices, and then I did one final fine-tuning after reading the opinions of other online experts and considering starting positions.
I came up with this top seven: Continue reading
The 48 and 2 dueled late in New Hampshire's June race, but ultimately Johnson tossed the Miller Lite car aside like an empty beer can. (Photo Drew Hallowell/Getty Images for NASCAR)
The NASCAR Sprint Cup series kicks off the Chase with a return to Loudon, N.H., this week for a run at New Hampshire Motor Speedway (NHMS). NHMS is an oval measuring roughly 1 mile in length with little banking in the turns. These specs place NHMS squarely in the short-flat track category, which includes Martinsville, Phoenix and Richmond. Fantasy NASCAR players and those handicapping NASCAR therefore have a healthy amount of historical data to review this week, and lots of data generally improves race predictability.
In addition, NHMS is bigger than the congested, bumper-car tracks at Martinsville and Bristol, and smaller than the massive flat tracks (e.g., Michigan, Pocono, etc.) that tend to promote fuel-mileage tactics. Weather.com calls for morning showers on Friday, but consistent, warm, dry weather for the rest of the race weekend. And Jayski’s Goodyear Tire Notes indicate the Sprint Cup cars will run the same tires this weekend as they did in New Hampshire earlier this season and both races last season, giving a final boost to predictability. Continue reading
Jimmie Johnson and crew chief Chad Knaus shoot the bull prior to the race. (Photo Rusty Jarrett/Getty Images for NASCAR)
The New Hampshire race unfolded pretty much as expected, with one major exception.
Jimmie Johnson: My pre-race #1 pick took the checkered flag. He led early, but then lost track position in the pits. He slowly climbed back up throughout the race, then took the lead after a late caution. Another caution allowed Kurt Busch to bump him out of the way and take the lead, but Johnson reeled him back in and performed his own bump and run.
Jeff Gordon: My #2 pick had a good car, but not quite the top car. He brought it home fourth.
Juan Pablo Montoya: My 3# pick also seemed to have a good-but-not-great car, but the Colombian bull did too much beating and banging late, damaging his car in the process. He was eventually punted into the wall.
Kurt Busch: My #4 pick was there at the end and would’ve won if the race were just a few laps shorter. He finished third.
Kyle Busch: My #5 pick had a really good car, but Jeff Burton accidentally spun him late. He managed to finish 11th.
The Exception
I didn’t foresee Tony Stewart having a great day, but he moved forward throughout and was a factor at the end. He finished second. It appears it’s time to keep an eye on Stewart on the short-flat tracks.
Off to Daytona!
Jimmie Johnson works the groove in practice on Saturday. (Photo Jim McIsaac/Getty Images)
The NASCAR Sprint Cup teams got in all three practices and qualifying at New Hampshire this week, giving fantasy NASCAR players and those handicapping NASCAR solid data to analyze. Before I get into the updated rankings, though, let’s revisit this week’s predictability.
I rated New Hampshire’s predictability above average in my New Hampshire race preview, and two predictability factors have improved since then. First, the early week weather forecast for the New Hampshire Motor Speedway (NHMS) area called for a decent chance of scattered thunderstorms today. Today, however, Weather.com says there is almost no chance of rain this afternoon at NHMS. No rain means a consistent racing surface, and no threat of a rain stoppage. That bodes well for predictability. Continue reading
Joey Logano won last year at New Hamshire when rain stopped the race. (Photo Chris Graythen/Getty Images)
The NASCAR Sprint Cup series rolls on to Loudon, N.H., this week for a run a New Hampshire Motor Speedway (NHMS). NHMS is an oval measuring roughly 1 mile in length with little banking in the turns. These specs place NHMS squarely in the short-flat track category, which includes Martinsville, Phoenix and Richmond. Fantasy NASCAR players and those handicapping NASCAR therefore have a healthy amount of historical data to review this week, and lots of data generally improves race predictability.
In addition, NHMS is bigger than the congested, bumper-car tracks at Martinsville and Bristol, and smaller than the massive flat tracks (e.g., Michigan, Pocono, etc.) that tend to promote fuel-mileage tactics. Add in the good weather forecast for the rest of the week—Weather.com calls for clear skies Friday and Saturday, with a chance of scattered thunderstorms on Sunday—and I think race predictability is above average this week. Continue reading
