Here are my final driver rankings for this weekend’s race at Michigan. I compiled them by crunching the practice and qualifying data from Michigan Friday and Saturday, and then melding it with the historical data:
Here are my mid-week driver rankings for this week’s NASCAR Sprint Cup race at the big-flat track in Michigan. I compiled them by crunching the loop, practice and qualifying data for the 2011 races at Michigan, Fontana, Kansas and Kentucky:
Here are my final driver rankings for Sunday’s race at Michigan. I compiled them by crunching the practice and qualifying data from Michigan Friday and Saturday, and then melding it with the loop, practice and qualifying data from the Fontana and Kansas race this year, the fall 2010 race at Fontana and the August 2010 race at Michigan:
Kevin Harvick passes Tony Stewart during a restart while the field runs five-wide behind them. (Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images)
My picks didn’t fare too well at Michigan on Sunday:
Note: Pit tactics came into play Sunday during a late caution. Some teams took four tires, some took two and Denny Hamlin didn’t pit at all. He turned that track position into a 2nd place finish.
Kasey Kahne nabbed the pole in qualifying.
As expected, the NASCAR Sprint Cup teams got in all three practices and qualifying Friday and Saturday at Michigan International Speedway (MIS), giving those of us handicapping NASCAR or playing fantasy NASCAR a substantial amount of pre-race data to examine. In addition, according to the Goodyear Tire Notes posted on Jayski’s Michigan Race Info page, the teams are running the same right- and left-side tires at MIS this week as they did in the June MIS race, giving an extra boost to race predictability.
However, the weather forecast for MIS at Weather.com calls for a 10–20% chance of scattered thunderstorms late Sunday morning and continuing through the afternoon, and that hurts predictability a bit because rain would alter the racing surface from what the teams have seen so far this week, and it could also give us a wild-card winner via a rain stoppage. Plus, as I noted in my race preview, the odds fuel-mileage tactics will come into play at MIS are elevated because the big, wide nature of this track generally produces fewer caution flags than most other tracks on the circuit.
So, I still rate tomorrow’s race predictability at average, or maybe even a tick below. I therefore will look to save starts where possible on my Yahoo! fantasy team, and I recommend bettors take a straight-forward approach to the betting lines. Continue reading
Kurt Busch started on the pole at MIS in June. (Photo Chris Trotman/Getty Images)
The NASCAR Sprint Cup series heads back to Michigan International Speedway (MIS) this week for another run on the 2-mile, D-shaped track with 18 degrees of banking. The series just raced at MIS in June, so fantasy NASCAR players and handicappers have very recent data to review, greatly bolstering predictability. In addition, Weather.com suggests at press time that the weather will be kind to the race teams on Friday, Saturday and Sunday, so we should get solid practice and qualifying data to review, and there’s little chance rain will mess with the race itself.
Sunday’s race enjoys above-average predictability then, right? No. Since the June race, I’ve thought long and hard about the races on the really big tracks, and I’ve concluded the chances fuel-mileage tactics will come into play are fairly high at these venues. Such tactics can turn a race’s running order upside down. Continue reading
Denny Hamlin receives the champagne following his win. (Photo Geoff Burke/Getty Images for NASCAR)
Fuel mileage did not come into play at Michigan yesterday, and the results were pretty consistent with my top four picks, with a few relatively minor surprises:
Jimmie Johnson: I rated Johnson #1 going in, but he seemed to be a tick slower that the leaders for much of the day. Surprisingly, the 48 wasn’t able to improve the car enough to get it to the front; typically that’s something that team excels at. He finished sixth.
Kurt Busch: My #2 pick had a really good car, but he was a shade slower than Denny Hamlin and Kasey Kahne. He finished third.
Denny Hamlin: Hamlin had a great car, and when he got it out into clean air, he was long gone. Score another win for the 11. Continue reading
Jimmie Johnson appears to be the man to beat today. (Photo Rusty Jarrett/Getty Images for NASCAR)
The rain forecast for Friday and Saturday at Michigan International Speedway (MIS) did not materialize, allowing the NASCAR Sprint Cup teams to run all three practices and qualifying. Those of us handicapping NASCAR or playing fantasy NASCAR therefore have a substantial amount of pre-race data to examine. The post-preliminary rankings don’t match up all that well with my initial rankings, however, and I think that shuffling decreases predictability a bit.
In addition, according to the Goodyear Tire Notes posted on Jayski’s Michigan Race Info page, the teams are running different right- and left-side tires at Michigan this week, and that also decreases predictability somewhat. On the other hand, the weather forecast for Michigan at Weather.com calls for no rain today, so the track surface should remain relatively consistent today, and we don’t have to worry about rain ending the race early. Continue reading
Mark Martin brings home the bacon in last June's Michigan race. (Photo Chris Trotman/Getty Images)
The NASCAR Sprint Cup series heads to Michigan International Speedway (MIS) in Brooklyn, Mich., this week, and fantasy NASCAR players and those handicapping NASCAR should enjoy decent predictability with this race. Let’s go through the key predicatibility factors:
The Historical Data
MIS is a big, flat, D-shaped track, so for data-analysis purposes, we can group it loosely with Pocono, Indianapolis and Kansas. However, it’s also essentially identical to the track in Fontana, Calif., which means we have superb historical data from four 2009 races (i.e., two at Michigan, and two at California) and this year’s race at California. Plus, we have the data from last week’s race at Pocono to crunch, so I think we can safely discard the data from last year’s races at Pocono, Indy and Kansas because our data sample size will remain strong without them. Tossing typically usable data is rare, and it leads to one conclusion—predictability is pretty good this week. Continue reading
