Tag Archives: handicapping

Final Rankings: Indy, 2017

Kyle Busch photo

Kyle Busch is on top in my final Indy driver rankings. (photo courtesy nascar)

Here are my final driver rankings for today’s race at Indy. I compiled them by crunching the practice and qualifying data from Indianapolis Friday and Saturday, and then melding it with the historical data:

  1. Kyle Busch
  2. Martin Truex Jr.
  3. Kevin Harvick
  4. Kyle Larson
  5. Jimmie Johnson
  6. Denny Hamlin
  7. Joey Logano
  8. Jamie McMurray
  9. Matt Kenseth
  10. Brad Keselowski Continue reading

DraftKings Driver Values: New Hampshire I, 2017

Paul Menard photo

Paul Menard offers nice DraftKings value at New Hampshire today in the $6K tier. (photo courtesy nascar)

Here are my DraftKings driver points and price/point predictions for today’s New Hampshire I race. To predict how many DraftKings points each driver will score today, I plugged my final driver rankings for today’s race into my projection model, and the starting lineup. Then, to calculate each driver’s price/point, I simply divided each driver’s price by their predicted points.

The below table lists all drivers available on DraftKings today, and it’s sorted from lowest price/point to highest. If you’re on a small-screen device, scroll the table horizontally with a finger drag to see all the columns.

The table: Continue reading

Final Rankings: New Hampshire I, 2017

Martin Truex Jr photo

Martin Truex Jr. took over the top spot in my final New Hampshire I driver rankings. (photo courtesy nascar)

Here are my final driver rankings for today’s NASCAR Cup race at New Hampshire. I compiled them by crunching the practice and qualifying data from New Hampshire Friday and Saturday, and then melding it with the historical data:

  1. Martin Truex Jr.
  2. Kyle Busch
  3. Kyle Larson
  4. Matt Kenseth
  5. Jimmie Johnson
  6. Chase Elliott
  7. Kevin Harvick
  8. Denny Hamlin
  9. Brad Keselowski
  10. Erik Jones Continue reading

Early Rankings: New Hampshire, 2017

Kyle Busch photo

Kyle Busch tops my early New Hampshire I driver rankings. (photo courtesy nascar)

Update: I’ve posted my final New Hampshire I driver rankings, which improve upon the below early rankings.

Here are my early driver rankings for Sunday’s NASCAR Cup race at New Hampshire. I compiled them by crunching:

  • The loop data for the past 15 Cup races (excluding DaytonaTalladega and Sonoma);
  • the loop data for the past four races;
  • the loop data for the past four races at New Hampshire;
  • the loop data for the past seven races at the other tracks in the Flats track group (i.e., Martinsville, Phoenix, Indy, Pocono and Richmond);
  • the practice and qualifying data for the past four races at New Hampshire; and
  • the practice and qualifying data for past seven races at the aforementioned Flats.

The results:

  1. Kyle Busch
  2. Martin Truex Jr.
  3. Kyle Larson
  4. Kevin Harvick
  5. Matt Kenseth
  6. Brad Keselowski
  7. Denny Hamlin
  8. Chase Elliott
  9. Joey Logano
  10. Jimmie Johnson Continue reading

DraftKings Driver Values: Kentucky, 2017

kyle larson photo

Kyle Larson offers top DraftKings value for tonight’s Kentucky race (photo courtesy nascar)

Here are my DraftKings driver points and price/point predictions for tonight’s Kentucky race. To predict how many DraftKings points each driver will score tonight, I plugged my final driver rankings for tonight’s race into my projection model, and the starting lineup. Then, to calculate each driver’s price/point, I simply divided each driver’s price by their predicted points.

The below table lists all drivers available on DraftKings tonight, and it’s sorted from lowest price/point to highest. If you’re on a small-screen device, scroll the table horizontally with a finger drag to see all the columns.

The table: Continue reading

Final Rankings: Kentucky, 2017

Kyle Busch photo

Kyle Busch remains on top in my final Kentucky driver rankings. (photo courtesy nascar)

Here are my final driver rankings for tonight’s NASCAR Sprint Cup race at Kentucky. I compiled them by crunching the Friday practice and qualifying data from Kentucky, and then melding it with the historical data:

  1. Kyle Busch
  2. Martin Truex Jr.
  3. Kyle Larson
  4. Kevin Harvick
  5. Matt Kenseth
  6. Jamie McMurray
  7. Jimmie Johnson
  8. Denny Hamlin
  9. Brad Keselowski
  10. Chase Elliott Continue reading

Early Rankings: Kentucky, 2017

Kyle Busch photo

Kyle Busch tops my early Kentucky driver rankings. (photo courtesy nascar)

Update: I’ve posted my final Kentucky driver rankings, which improve upon the below early rankings.

Here are my mid-week driver rankings for this week’s NASCAR Cup race at Kentucky. I compiled them by crunching:

  • The loop data for the past 15 Cup races (excluding Daytona II, Talladega and Sonoma;
  • the loop data for the past four races at Kentucky;
  • the loop data for the past seven races at other tracks in the Large Ovals track group (i.e., FontanaKansasTexasCharlotte, Atlanta and Michigan;
  • the practice and qualifying data for the past four races at Kentucky; and
  • the practice and qualifying data for past seven races at the aforementioned Large Ovals.

The results:

  1. Kyle Busch
  2. Martin Truex Jr.
  3. Kyle Larson
  4. Kevin Harvick
  5. Brad Keselowski
  6. Matt Kenseth
  7. Joey Logano
  8. Jimmie Johnson
  9. Denny Hamlin
  10. Chase Elliott Continue reading

Final Rankings: Daytona II, 2017

brad keselowski photo

Brad Keselowski remains my pick to win Daytona II tonight in my final driver rankings. (photo courtesy nascar)

Here are my final driver rankings for tonight’s Daytona II race. I compiled them by crunching the Friday qualifying data from Daytona, and then melding it with the historical data:

  1. Brad Keselowski
  2. Joey Logano
  3. Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
  4. Dale Earnhardt Jr.
  5. Ryan Blaney
  6. Chase Elliott
  7. Kevin Harvick
  8. Kurt Busch
  9. Kyle Busch
  10. Denny Hamlin Continue reading

Early Rankings: Daytona II, 2017

brad keselowski photo

Brad Keselowski tops my early Daytona II driver rankings. (photo courtesy nascar)

Update: I’ve posted my final Daytona II driver rankings, which improve upon the below early rankings.

Here are my early driver rankings for this week’s Daytona II race. I compiled them by crunching the loop and qualifying data for the past four plate races. Those metrics reflect speed, the ability to pass and the ability (and inclination) to run a lot of laps up front:

  1. Brad Keselowski
  2. Joey Logano
  3. Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
  4. Ryan Blaney
  5. Kurt Busch
  6. Kyle Busch
  7. Denny Hamlin
  8. Kyle Larson
  9. Dale Earnhardt Jr.
  10. Chase Elliott Continue reading

DraftKings Driver Values: Sonoma, 2017

Matt Kenseth photo

Matt Kenseth is a good DraftKings options in the $7K tier because he didn’t qualify (and therefore should score mega Place Differential points). (photo courtesy nascar)

Here are my DraftKings driver points and price/point predictions for tomorrow’s Sonoma race. To predict how many DraftKings points each driver will score tomorrow, I plugged my final driver rankings for tomorrow’s race into my projection model, and the starting lineup. Then, to calculate each driver’s price/point, I simply divided each driver’s price by their predicted points.

The below table lists all drivers running tomorrow, and it’s sorted from lowest price/point to highest. If you’re on a small-screen device, scroll the table horizontally with a finger drag to see all the columns.

The table: Continue reading