Here are my final driver rankings for today’s race at Daytona. I compiled them by crunching the prelim data from Daytona during Speedweeks, and then melding it with the historical data:
Here are my early driver rankings for the annual crapshoot called the Daytona 500. I compiled them by crunching the loop and qualifying data for the 2011 races at Daytona and Talladega, which reflects speed, the ability to pass and the ability (and inclination) to run a lot of laps up front:
Practice was exciting Thursday. (Photo Todd Warshaw/Getty Images for NASCAR)
In my race preview a few days ago, I noted the many factors that made tonight’s race at Daytona very unpredictable—the problems that come with racing in packs, the poor data, the green-white-checkered and wave-around rules, the switch from the wing to the spoiler, and the rain in the weather forecast. Well, not only have none of these predictability factors changed, it’s clear after practice that from a fantasy NASCAR or betting perspective, tonight’s predictability is even worse than expected.
First, the practice and qualifying data is worse than expected because qualifying was rained out after only 12 cars posted runs. Also, rain remains a threat tonight according to Weather.com.
But far more important are the race conditions created by the spoiler, the large restrictor plate (NASCAR bumped up the size for this race due to the increased drag created by the spoiler compared to the wing), and the hot track. In short, the cars looked fast but all over the place in practice. Numerous cars crashed on Thursday, and it appears likely tonight’s race will be an exciting smash-’em-up affair, too. Continue reading
Jamie McMurray takes the checkered flag in this spring's Daytona 500. (Photo Todd Warshaw/Getty Images for NASCAR)
Back we go to the high banks of Daytona for the second time this season. This 2.5 mile superspeedway offers little predicability because like Talladega, NASCAR forces the teams to run a restrictor plate on the carburetor on this track. Without the plate, the cars would reach speeds way over 200 mph, posing an unacceptable risk to everyone on and near the track.
The problem with capping horsepower, of course, is that it tends to bunch the cars up in packs, and packs increase unpredictability in two ways. First, they produce an intense form of drafting tactics in which the cars form lines two- and three-wide. To get up front, drivers must draft in line and shuffle between the lines to move forward, and this gives drivers with average skills and equipment a greater chance running well than they do at non plate tracks. Second, the packs tend to produce big, demolition-derby style crashes. If one driver in a pack bobbles, surrounding cars have little chance of avoiding him, and mayhem results. Continue reading
