Tag Archives: Daytona

DraftKings Lineups: Daytona I, 2017

Kyle Busch photo

Kyle Busch looms large in my top 30 optimized DraftKings lineups for the Daytona 500 today. (photo courtesy nascar)

I’ve used my lineup optimizer to compile my top 30 DraftKings NASCAR driver lineups for today’s Daytona 500. To compile them, first I plugged my final driver rankings for today’s race and the starting lineup into my driver points projection model to project how many DraftKings points each driver will score at Daytona today. Then I ran those points projections through a knapsack-problem optimizer algorithm I created in Google Sheets with the OpenSolver add-on, which churned through all possible driver combinations to calculate the 30 best lineups for today’s race.

The lineups are sorted in descending order of total predicted points scored, and the total predicted points have been rounded to the nearest hundredth. I posted them in a PDF file you can download and view for $3. Here’s the link: Daytona 500 2017 DraftKings Lineups

Note: No guarantee comes with my lineups, rankings, predictions, etc. Use them at your own risk. To get a feel for how the lineups look, check out my Kansas I 2016 DraftKings lineups.

Good luck today!

DraftKings Driver Values: Daytona I, 2017

Martin Truex Jr photo

My numbers say Martin Truex Jr. offers top DraftKings value at Daytona today. (photo courtesy nascar)

Here are my DraftKings driver points and price/point predictions for today’s Daytona 500. To predict how many DraftKings points each driver will score today, I plugged my driver rankings for today’s race into my projection model, and the qualifying results/starting lineup. Then, to calculate each driver’s price/point, I simply divided each driver’s price by their predicted points.

The below table lists all drivers running today, and it’s sorted from lowest price/point to highest. If you’re on a small-screen device, scroll the table horizontally with a finger drag to see all the columns.

The table: Continue reading

Final Rankings: Daytona I, 2017

Dale Earnhardt Jr. photo

Dale Jr. took over the top spot in my final Daytona 500 driver rankings. (photo courtesy nascar)

The practice speed chart numbers have long held very little predictive value at the restrictor plate races because the cars draft during plate practices. So, to compile final rankings for today’s Daytona 500, I updated my early rankings with data from Thursday’s Can-Am duel races. And unfortunately, I had to massage that data a bit because the Duel 1 loop data wasn’t available. That reduces the Duel data’s predictive value, so I dialed back its weight in my spreadsheet accordingly.

The results:

  1. Dale Earnhardt Jr
  2. Brad Keselowski
  3. Denny Hamlin
  4. Kyle Busch
  5. Joey Logano
  6. Chase Elliott
  7. Clint Bowyer
  8. Matt Kenseth
  9. Martin Truex, Jr.
  10. Kasey Kahne Continue reading

Early Rankings: Daytona I, 2017

brad keselowski photo

Kez remains on top in my early Daytona I driver rankings. (photo courtesy nascar)

Update: I’ve completed my final Daytona I driver rankings, which improve upon these early rankings.

Here are my early driver rankings for the Daytona 500. I compiled them by crunching the qualifying data from Daytona yesterday, and then melding it with the historical data:

  1. Brad Keselowski
  2. Denny Hamlin
  3. Dale Earnhardt Jr.
  4. Kyle Busch
  5. Joey Logano
  6. Matt Kenseth
  7. Martin Truex Jr.
  8. Chase Elliott
  9. Ryan Blaney
  10. Kurt Busch Continue reading

Early, EARLY Rankings: Daytona I, 2017

brad keselowski photo

Kez tops my early early Daytona I driver rankings. (photo courtesy nascar)

Update: I’ve now completed my early Daytona rankings, which improve upon these early-early rankings.

Here are my early-early driver rankings for the upcoming Daytona 500. I compiled them by crunching the loop and qualifying data for the past four plate races. I think these two metrics reflect speed, the ability to pass and the ability (and inclination) to run a lot of laps up front, all of which should give me the best chance to get in the ballpark with race-result predictions.

Note: These rankings are rough, especially because I’m not even sure yet what the final entry list will look like. I’ll update the rankings as we work our way through Speedweeks.

OK, here they are:

  1. Brad Keselowski
  2. Denny Hamlin
  3. Joey Logano
  4. Kyle Busch
  5. Kurt Busch
  6. Dale Earnhardt Jr.
  7. Ryan Blaney
  8. Austin Dillon
  9. Matt Kenseth
  10. Ricky Stenhouse Jr. Continue reading

DraftKings Lineups: Daytona II, 2016

Matt Kenseth photo

Matt Kenseth appears in each one of my top 30 DraftKings lineups for Daytona II tonight. (photo courtesy nascar)

I’ve used my lineup optimizer to compile my top 30 DraftKings NASCAR driver lineups for tonight’s Daytona II race. To compile them, first I plugged my final driver rankings for tonight’s race and Friday’s qualifying results into my driver points projection model to project how many DraftKings points each driver will score at Daytona tonight. Then I ran those points projections through an algorithm I created in Google Sheets with the OpenSolver add-on, which chewed through all possible driver combinations to spit out the 30 best lineups for tonight’s race.

The lineups are sorted in descending order of total predicted points scored, and the total predicted points have been rounded to the nearest hundredth. I posted them in a PDF file you can download and view for $1. Here’s the link: Daytona II 2016 DraftKings Lineups

Note: No guarantee comes with my lineups, rankings, predictions, etc. Use them at your own risk. To get a feel for how the lineups look, check out my Kansas I 2016 DraftKings lineups.

Good luck tonight!

DraftKings Driver Values: Daytona II, 2016

ryan blaney photo

Ryan Blaney looks good in DraftKings’ $6K range today at Daytona II. (photo courtesy nascar)

Here are my DraftKings driver points and price/point predictions for tonight’s Daytona II race. To predict how many DraftKings points each driver will score tonight, I plugged my driver rankings for tonight’s race into my projection model, and Friday’s qualifying results. Then, to calculate each driver’s price/point, I simply divided each driver’s price by their predicted points.

The below table lists all drivers running tonight, and it’s sorted from lowest price/point to highest. If you’re on a small-screen device, scroll the table horizontally with a finger drag to see all the columns.

The table: Continue reading

Final Rankings: Daytona II, 2016

Matt Kenseth photo

Matt Kenseth took over the top spot in my final Daytona II driver rankings. (photo courtesy nascar)

Here are my final driver rankings for tonight’s race at Daytona. I compiled them by crunching the Friday qualifying data from Daytona, and then melding it with the historical data:

  1. Matt Kenseth
  2. Jimmie Johnson
  3. Denny Hamlin
  4. Dale Earnhardt Jr.
  5. Kyle Busch
  6. Brad Keselowski
  7. Kurt Busch
  8. Austin Dillon
  9. Joey Logano
  10. Ryan Blaney Continue reading

Early Rankings: Daytona II, 2016

Dale Earnhardt Jr. photo

Dale Jr. tops my early Daytona II driver rankings. (photo courtesy nascar)

Update: I’ve posted my final Daytona II driver rankings, which improve upon these early rankings.

Here are my early driver rankings for this week’s Daytona II race. I compiled them by crunching the loop and qualifying data for the past four plate races. Those metrics reflect speed, the ability to pass and the ability (and inclination) to run a lot of laps up front:

  1. Dale Earnhardt Jr.
  2. Matt Kenseth
  3. Jimmie Johnson
  4. Denny Hamlin
  5. Brad Keselowski
  6. Kyle Busch
  7. Kasey Kahne
  8. Kevin Harvick
  9. Kurt Busch
  10. Ryan Blaney Continue reading

DraftKings Driver Values: Daytona I, 2016

Paul Menard photo

Paul Menard looks like a great DraftKings lineup filler at the Daytona 500 today. (photo courtesy nascar)

Here are my DraftKings driver points and price/point predictions for today’s Daytona 500. To predict how many DraftKings points each driver will score today, I plugged my driver rankings for today’s race into my projection model, and the qualifying results. Then, to calculate each driver’s price/point, I simply divided each driver’s price by their predicted points.

My points projection model is a work in progress, so don’t take the below info as gospel. Still, I think it can provide big-picture help when crafting DraftKings lineups.

Note: The below table lists all drivers running today, and it’s sorted from lowest price/point to highest. If you’re on a small screen device, scroll the table horizontally with a finger drag to see all the columns: Continue reading