Here are my final driver rankings for today’s race at Bristol. I compiled them by crunching the prelim data from Bristol Friday and Saturday, and then melding it with the historical data:
Here are my mid-week driver rankings for this week’s NASCAR race at Bristol. I compiled them by crunching the loop data for the past 15 Sprint Cup races (excluding Daytona and Talladega), the loop data for the past four races at Bristol, the loop data for the 2011 races at Las Vegas, Dover, Homestead and Darlington, and the practice and qualifying data for the 2011/2012 races at Las Vegas, Bristol, Dover, Homestead and Darlington:
Here are my final driver rankings for this weekend’s race at Bristol. I compiled them by crunching the practice and qualifying data from Bristol Friday and Saturday, and then melding it with the historical data:
Here are my mid-week driver rankings for this week’s NASCAR Sprint Cup race at the short-banked track in Bristol, Tenn. I compiled them by crunching the loop, practice and qualifying data for the 2011 races at Bristol, Dover and Darlington:
Here are my mid-week driver rankings for next week’s NASCAR race at Bristol. I compiled them by crunching the practice and qualifying data for the late-season 2010 races at Bristol and Dover, and the loop data for those same races:
The 48 suffered serious damage when Juan Pablo Montoya elected to put him into the wall. (Jason Smith/Getty Images)
Bristol Motor Speedway put on another fun show last night with lots of on-track action. Some of that action tore up some of my pre-race favorites, unfortunately. Here’s a quick run down of what happened to my top six:
Jimmie Johnson: Johnson had a fantastic car and led many laps, but just as he and Kyle Busch were poised to engage in a thrilling duel at the front of the field, Juan Pablo Montoya inexplicably hooked Johnson and sent him on a bash-up ride into the wall. Johnson had to go behind the wall to make repairs; he finished 35th many laps down.
Juan Pablo Montoya: Montoya had at least a top 10-ish car, and after he eliminated one of the top cars in Johnson’s 48, it appeared he was in good position to challenge for the win. He ultimately wasn’t as fast as Busch and several other drivers, however. He finished 7th. Continue reading
Jeff Gordon spun while getting up to speed for his qualifying lap. Because he hadn't yet crossed the start-finish line, he was allowed to get four fresh tires and run again. (Rusty Jarrett/Getty Images for NASCAR)
The NASCAR Sprint Cup teams got in both practices and qualifying yesterday, and it became clear during Practice 1 that this August race at Bristol will not be a simple re-run of the March race. The teams are running completely different tires on both sides than they ran in March, and it appears the change essentially rendered the teams’ March notes useless. It looked like crew chiefs were doing far more than simply tweaking their March setups, and many of the drivers ran all over the track trying to find the best line. At one point during the Practice 1 telecast, viewers saw Clint Bowyer standing atop the hauler so he could observe the other drivers to see where they were running, braking, etc.
In another blow to predictability, the speed-chart data produced during the prelims proved less than wonderful. In Practice 1, for example, A.J. Allmendinger and Dale Earnhardt Jr. ran the fastest race-trim laps, but both drivers strongly disliked their cars. Junior even got into another sniping battle with his crew chief, complaining the car was “crashing every lap,” “crap” and “tight, tight, tight.” Allmendinger was so loose he spun twice. Bottom line: One fast lap does not a winning car make. Continue reading
Kurt Busch and Jimmie Johnson combined to lead six different times for 110 of the first 116 laps at Bristol in March. (Photo Jason Smith/Getty Images for NASCAR)
This week the series returns to the very short, steeply banked track at Bristol, Tenn. Pit road and the pit stalls are extremely cramped at Bristol, which tends to lead to more delays, accidents and general mayhem than at bigger tracks. It’s also fairly easy to get caught up in someone else’s wreck at Bristol, and when the race goes green for awhile, the front runners quickly catch the tail end of the field, so they don’t get a peaceful, spread-out run for very long.
In addition, the quality and quantity of our historical data for this race are less than what we get for an intermediate-size track such as Charlotte. First, Bristol is a one-of-a-kind track on the NASCAR Sprint Cup circuit. You can (and should) look at the 2010 data from Bristol the two other shortish, banked tracks on the circuit—i.e., Dover and Darlington—but the value of that data is limited because those tracks are no where near as similar to Bristol as, say, Vegas, Texas, Homestead and Charlotte are to Atlanta. Continue reading
I rated Jimmie Johnson the clear favorite at Bristol, and lo and behold, he came through! It certainly was touch-and-go, though, because Kurt Busch was fast all day. He was leading late, and it looked unlikely Johnson (running second) could get him if the race stayed green. But a late caution threw the race to the pits. Johnson and Busch took four tires, and when the other front runners took two, the 48 and 2 took the green flag in sixth and fifth, respectively. It looked grim, but the champ surged to the front in a few laps and ran away with the race over the last six or so laps.
Unfortunately, my #2 pick, Juan Pablo Montoya, did not fare so well. He had a strong car early, running up front for much of the day (he led 29 laps). But then he slipped back a bit, got dinged in a big pileup at lap 342, and finished 26th.
My Yahoo! Fantasy League Picks
Group A: Johnson came through, woo hoo!
Group B: Kenseth used some pit strategy to get track position and finished 5th. Reutimann was very strong early, running 3rd and surging toward the lead. But then his engine failed—sigh.
Group C: Scott Speed was motoring toward a decent finish of around 20th with with maybe 30 laps left (?) when he suffered a flat tire and smacked the wall. He got back out and finished 31st.
Lessons Learned
I learned a couple things about Bristol yesterday. First, drivers aren’t pounding their brakes nearly as much as I thought they were, and that reduces the chance of equipment failure. Second, despite the extension of the SAFER barriers in turns 2 and 4 (which tightened the track slightly), Bristol just isn’t the bang-’em-up track it used to be. Put both of these lessons together, and it’s clear Bristol has more predictability than I thought. Not as much as, say, Las Vegas, but more than Martinsville.
Which is where we go next!
The Bristol practice and qualifying action delivered several surprises. First, although Kyle Busch was a big pre-race favorite due to his performances last year, he ran badly in the preliminaries. Which makes it doubly surprising that his teammate, Joey Logano, ran really, really well. I also did not foresee Juan Pablo Montoya showing so much speed, so consistently.
On the other side of the coin, Jimmie Johnson ran exactly as I suspected—strong. He is clearly the class of the field for tomorrow’s race.
Here’s an update to my favorites list:
1. Jimmie Johnson
2. Juan Pablo Montoya
3. Jeff Gordon
4. Mark Martin
5. Joey Logano
6. Matt Kenseth
7. Kurt Busch
If I were looking purely at the pre-race numbers, I’d rate Logano higher, but you also must consider the driver. Logano remains unproven, and don’t forget he’ll be rubbing fenders with the likes of Jimmie Johnson and Jeff Gordon.
The weather could shake things up. During practice and qualifying, Bristol saw clear skies and pretty steady temperatures around 70 degrees F. On race day, though, it will likely be a little cooler, and at press time there’s a 60% chance of afternoon showers.
My Yahoo! Fantasy Picks
In Group A, I’m starting Johnson over Mark Martin. In Group B, I was hoping to run Marcos Ambrose, but he just hasn’t shown enough to justify starting him instead of Matt Kenseth and David Reutimann, so I’m going with those two guys.
In Group C, I’m starting Scott Speed over Paul Menard. I would’ve started Speed even if it were close between he and Menard to save a start for Menard, so I’m pretty happy Speed actually looks significantly faster than Menard. I will say I wish I had Allmendinger available—he looks much stronger than I anticipated.
Handicapping
The best odds I’ve seen on Jimmie Johnson today are 4.5-1 at Bodog. Even though I think he’s the clear favorite, those odds just aren’t good enough, especially at a bang-’em-up track like Bristol.
I did find Juan Pablo Montoya at 15-1 last night at BetUS, and I liked that bet because I think he’s the clear #2 horse in the field. It looks like he’s slipped to 10-1 this morning, though.
Joey Logano is tempting at 20-1 (also at BetUS), but I’d have a hard time pulling the trigger. He’s still just a sophomore who hasn’t done a whole lot (his win last year was due to rain).
