DraftKings Driver Values: Talladega I, 2017

kurt busch photo

Kurt Busch offers top DraftKings value at Talladega today. (photo courtesy nascar)

Here are my DraftKings driver points and price/point predictions for today’s Talladega I race. To predict how many DraftKings points each driver will score today, I plugged my driver rankings for today’s race into my projection model, and the starting lineup. Then, to calculate each driver’s price/point, I simply divided each driver’s price by their predicted points.

The below table lists all drivers running today, and it’s sorted from lowest price/point to highest. If you’re on a small-screen device, scroll the table horizontally with a finger drag to see all the columns.

The table: Continue reading

Final Rankings: Talladega I, 2017

brad keselowski photo

Brad Keselowski remains my pick to win at Talladega today in my final driver rankings. (photo courtesy nascar)

Here are my final driver rankings for today’s Cup race at Talladega. I compiled them by crunching the qualifying data from Talladega on Saturday, and then melding it with the historical data:

  1. Brad Keselowski
  2. Joey Logano
  3. Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
  4. Chase Elliott
  5. Ryan Blaney
  6. Kurt Busch
  7. Dale Earnhardt Jr.
  8. Denny Hamlin
  9. Kyle Busch
  10. Trevor Bayne Continue reading

Kentucky Derby 2017: the Wisdom of an Expert Crowd

churchill downs racing photo

Churchill Downs and its famed twin spires will host the 143rd running of the Kentucky Derby. (photo courtesy churchill downs)

I’ve been watching the Kentucky Derby every year since I was a wee lad, and every year I struggle to figure out which horse(s) to bet on. I’ve got a pretty good handle on NASCAR handicapping, but I don’t know jack about horse racing.

Tomorrow will mark the 143rd running of the Derby. This year I put in a little more effort into my pre-race research than usual, and I thought I’d share the results. These aren’t my numbers or data, but they should get you in the ballpark. It’s not just the wisdom of crowds, it’s the wisdom of an expert crowd—that might be even better, right?

OK, first I’ve compiled the opening odds of Mike Battaglia (Churchill Downs’ handicapper), Mike Watchmaker (the Daily Racing Form’s handicapper) and the Bovada sportsbook into a spreadsheet. I then calculated the average odds from all three sources on each horse, and I’ve sorted the spreadsheet from best average odds to worst. If you’re on a small-screen device, scroll the table horizontally with a finger drag to see all the columns:
Continue reading

Early Rankings: Talladega I, 2017

brad keselowski photo

Brad Keselowski tops my early Talladega I driver rankings. (photo courtesy nascar)

Update: I’ve posted my final Talladega I driver rankings, which improve upon the below early rankings.

Here are my early driver rankings for this week’s race at Talladega. I compiled them by crunching the loop data for the past four plate races and the qualifying data from past four plate races. Those metrics reflect speed, the ability to pass and the ability (and inclination) to run a lot of laps up front.

The results:

  1. Brad Keselowski
  2. Joey Logano
  3. Ryan Blaney
  4. Kurt Busch
  5. Chase Elliott
  6. Denny Hamlin
  7. Kyle Busch
  8. Ricky Stenhouse Jr
  9. Austin Dillon
  10. Kyle Larson Continue reading

DraftKings Lineups: Richmond I, 2017

Martin Truex Jr photo

Martin Truex Jr. appears in every one of my optimized top 30 DraftKings lineups for Richmond I. (photo courtesy nascar)

I’ve used my lineup optimizer to compile my top 30 DraftKings NASCAR driver lineups for today’s Richmond I race. To compile them, first I plugged my final driver rankings for the race and the starting lineup into my driver points projection model to project how many DraftKings points each driver will score at Richmond I. Then I ran those points projections through a knapsack-problem optimizer algorithm I created in Google Sheets with the OpenSolver add-on, which churned through all possible driver combinations to calculate the 30 best lineups for the race.

The lineups are sorted in descending order of total predicted points scored, and the total predicted points have been rounded to the nearest hundredth. I posted them in a PDF file you can download and view for $3. Here’s the link: Richmond I 2017 DraftKings Lineups

Note: No guarantee comes with my lineups, rankings, predictions, etc. Use them at your own risk. To get a feel for how the lineups look, check out my Kansas I 2016 DraftKings lineups.

Good luck!

DraftKings Driver Values: Richmond I, 2017

Trevor Bayne photo

Trevor Bayne offers nice value in DraftKings’ $6K tier today at Richmond. (photo courtesy nascar)

Here are my DraftKings driver points and price/point predictions for today’s Richmond I race. To predict how many DraftKings points each driver will score today, I plugged my driver rankings for today’s race into my projection model, and the starting lineup. Then, to calculate each driver’s price/point, I simply divided each driver’s price by their predicted points.

The below table lists all drivers running today, and it’s sorted from lowest price/point to highest. If you’re on a small-screen device, scroll the table horizontally with a finger drag to see all the columns.

The table: Continue reading

Final Rankings: Richmond I, 2017

Martin Truex Jr photo

Martin Truex Jr. took over the top spot in my final Richmond I driver rankings. (photo courtesy nascar)

Here are my final driver rankings for today’s race at Richmond. I compiled them by crunching the practice and qualifying data from Richmond on Friday and Saturday, and then melding it with the historical data:

  1. Martin Truex Jr.
  2. Kyle Busch
  3. Matt Kenseth
  4. Joey Logano
  5. Kevin Harvick
  6. Kyle Larson
  7. Denny Hamlin
  8. Jimmie Johnson
  9. Chase Elliott
  10. Brad Keselowski Continue reading

Early Rankings: Richmond I, 2017

Kyle Busch photo

Kyle Busch tops my early Richmond I driver rankings. (photo courtesy nascar)

Update: I’ve posted my final driver rankings for Richmond I, which improve upon the below early rankings.

Here are my early driver rankings for this week’s NASCAR Cup race at Richmond. I compiled them by crunching:

  • The loop data for the past 15 Sprint Cup races (excluding Daytona and Talladega);
  • the loop data for the past four races;
  • the loop data for the past four races at Richmond;
  • the loop data for the past eight races at the other tracks in the Flats track group (i.e., Martinsville, Phoenix, Indy, Pocono and New Hampshire);
  • the practice and qualifying data for the past four races at Richmond; and
  • the practice and qualifying data for past eight races at the aforementioned Flats.

The results:

  1. Kyle Busch
  2. Martin Truex Jr.
  3. Joey Logano
  4. Brad Keselowski
  5. Kyle Larson
  6. Jimmie Johnson
  7. Kevin Harvick
  8. Matt Kenseth
  9. Denny Hamlin
  10. Chase Elliott Continue reading

DraftKings Lineups: Bristol I, 2017

Kyle Busch photo

Kyle Busch appears in every one of my top 30 optimized DraftKings lineups for Bristol I. (photo courtesy nascar)

I’ve used my lineup optimizer to compile my top 30 DraftKings NASCAR driver lineups for the Bristol I race. To compile them, first I plugged my final driver rankings for the race and the starting lineup into my driver points projection model to project how many DraftKings points each driver will score at Bristol I. Then I ran those points projections through a knapsack-problem optimizer algorithm I created in Google Sheets with the OpenSolver add-on, which churned through all possible driver combinations to calculate the 30 best lineups for the race.

The lineups are sorted in descending order of total predicted points scored, and the total predicted points have been rounded to the nearest hundredth. I posted them in a PDF file you can download and view for $3. Here’s the link: Bristol I 2017 DraftKings Lineups

Note: No guarantee comes with my lineups, rankings, predictions, etc. Use them at your own risk. To get a feel for how the lineups look, check out my Kansas I 2016 DraftKings lineups.

Good luck!

DraftKings Driver Values: Bristol I, 2017

AJ Allmendinger photo

To finish the bottom of your DraftKings lineups for Bristol tomorrow, take a look at AJ Allmendinger in the $6K tier. (photo courtesy nascar)

Here are my DraftKings driver points and price/point predictions for tomorrow’s Bristol I race. To predict how many DraftKings points each driver will score tomorrow, I plugged my driver rankings for tomorrow’s race into my projection model, and the starting lineup. Then, to calculate each driver’s price/point, I simply divided each driver’s price by their predicted points.

The below table lists all drivers running tomorrow, and it’s sorted from lowest price/point to highest. If you’re on a small-screen device, scroll the table horizontally with a finger drag to see all the columns.

The table: Continue reading