Final Rankings: Dover II, 2017

kyle larson photo

Kyle Larson took over the top spot in my final Dover II driver rankings. (photo courtesy nascar)

Here are my final driver rankings for today’s race at Dover. I compiled them by crunching the practice data from Dover on Friday and Saturday, and then melding it with the historical data:

  1. Kyle Larson
  2. Kyle Busch
  3. Martin Truex Jr.
  4. Kevin Harvick
  5. Matt Kenseth
  6. Denny Hamlin
  7. Chase Elliott
  8. Jimmie Johnson
  9. Kurt Busch
  10. Ryan Blaney Continue reading

Early Rankings: Dover II, 2017

Martin Truex Jr photo

Martin Truex Jr. tops my early Dover II driver rankings. (photo courtesy nascar)

Update: I’ve posted my final Dover II driver rankings, which improve upon the below early rankings.

Here are my early driver rankings for this week’s NASCAR Cup race at Dover. I compiled them by crunching:

  • The loop data for the past 15 Cup races (excluding Daytona, Watkins Glen, Sonoma and Talladega);
  • the loop data for the past four races;
  • the loop data for the past four races at Dover;
  • the loop data for the past six races at the other tracks in the Steeps track group (i.e., BristolDarlingtonLas Vegas, Dover and Homestead);
  • the practice and qualifying data for the past four races at Dover; and
  • the practice and qualifying data for past six races at the aforementioned Steeps.

The results:

  1. Martin Truex Jr.
  2. Kyle Busch
  3. Kyle Larson
  4. Matt Kenseth
  5. Kevin Harvick
  6. Denny Hamlin
  7. Chase Elliott
  8. Jimmie Johnson
  9. Brad Keselowski
  10. Joey Logano Continue reading

DraftKings Driver Values: New Hampshire II, 2017

Daniel Suarez photo

Daniel Suarez offers good value in DraftKings’ 7K tier at New Hampshire today. (photo courtesy nascar)

Here are my DraftKings driver points and price/point predictions for today’s New Hampshire II race. To predict how many DraftKings points each driver will score today, I plugged my final driver rankings for today’s race into my projection model, and the starting lineup. Then, to calculate each driver’s price/point, I simply divided each driver’s price by their predicted points.

The below table lists all drivers available on DraftKings today, and it’s sorted from lowest price/point to highest. If you’re on a small-screen device, scroll the table horizontally with a finger drag to see all the columns.

The table: Continue reading