Early Rankings: Martinsville I, 2017

Kyle Busch photo

Kyle Busch tops my early Martinsville I driver rankings. (photo courtesy nascar)

Update: I’ve posted my final Martinsville I driver rankings, which improve upon the below early rankings.

Here are my early driver rankings for this week’s NASCAR Cup race at Martinsville. I compiled them by crunching:

  • The loop data for the past 15 Cup races (excluding Daytona and Talladega);
  • the loop data for the past four races;
  • the loop data for the past four races at Martinsville;
  • the loop data for the past eight races at the other tracks in the Flats track group (i.e., RichmondPhoenixIndyPocono and New Hampshire);
  • the practice and qualifying data for the past four races at Martinsville; and
  • the practice and qualifying data for past eight races at the aforementioned Flats.

The results:

  1. Kyle Busch
  2. Martin Truex Jr.
  3. Joey Logano
  4. Brad Keselowski
  5. Kyle Larson
  6. Kevin Harvick
  7. Denny Hamlin
  8. Matt Kenseth
  9. Jimmie Johnson
  10. Erik Jones Continue reading

DraftKings Lineups: Fontana, 2017

joey logano photo

Sliced Bread appears in all 30 of my DraftKings lineups for Fontana today. (photo courtesy nascar)

I’ve used my lineup optimizer to compile my top 30 DraftKings NASCAR driver lineups for today’s Fontana race. To compile them, first I plugged my final driver rankings for today’s race and the starting lineup into my driver points projection model to project how many DraftKings points each driver will score at Fontana today. Then I ran those points projections through a knapsack-problem optimizer algorithm I created in Google Sheets with the OpenSolver add-on, which churned through all possible driver combinations to calculate the 30 best lineups for today’s race.

The lineups are sorted in descending order of total predicted points scored, and the total predicted points have been rounded to the nearest hundredth. I posted them in a PDF file you can download and view for $3. Here’s the link: Fontana 2017 DraftKings Lineups

Note: No guarantee comes with my lineups, rankings, predictions, etc. Use them at your own risk. To get a feel for how the lineups look, check out my Kansas I 2016 DraftKings lineups.

Good luck today!

DraftKings Driver Values: Fontana, 2017

AJ Allmendinger photo

To finish to bottom of your DraftKings lineups for Fontana tomorrow, take a look at AJ Allmendinger in the $6K tier. (photo courtesy nascar)

Here are my DraftKings driver points and price/point predictions for tomorrow’s Fontana race. To predict how many DraftKings points each driver will score tomorrow, I plugged my driver rankings for tomorrow’s race into my projection model, and the qualifying results/starting lineup. Then, to calculate each driver’s price/point, I simply divided each driver’s price by their predicted points.

The below table lists all drivers running tomorrow, and it’s sorted from lowest price/point to highest. If you’re on a small-screen device, scroll the table horizontally with a finger drag to see all the columns.

The table: Continue reading

Final Rankings: Fontana, 2017

Kevin Harvick photo

Kevin Harvick remains on top in my final Fontana driver rankings. (photo courtesy nascar)

Here are my final driver rankings for tomorrow’s NASCAR Cup race at Fontana. I compiled them by crunching the practice and qualifying data from Fontana on Friday and Saturday, and then melding it with the historical data:

  1. Kevin Harvick
  2. Chase Elliott
  3. Joey Logano
  4. Brad Keselowski
  5. Martin Truex Jr.
  6. Kyle Busch
  7. Matt Kenseth
  8. Jimmie Johnson
  9. Kyle Larson
  10. Denny Hamlin Continue reading

Early Rankings: Fontana, 2017

Kevin Harvick photo

Kevin Harvick tops my early Fontana driver rankings. (photo courtesy nascar)

Update: I’ve posted my final Fontana driver rankings, which improve upon the below early rankings.

Here are my early driver rankings for this week’s NASCAR Cup race at Fontana. I compiled them by crunching:

  • The loop data for the past 15 Cup races (excluding Daytona and Talladega);
  • the loop data for the past four races (excluding Daytona);
  • the loop data for the past four races at Fontana;
  • the loop data for the past eight races at the other tracks in the Large Ovals track group (i.e., Texas, Charlotte, Atlanta, Kansas, Chicago, Michigan and Kentucky);
  • the practice and qualifying data for the past four races at Fontana; and
  • the practice and qualifying data for past eight races at the aforementioned Large Ovals.

The results:

  1. Kevin Harvick
  2. Chase Elliott
  3. Joey Logano
  4. Brad Keselowski
  5. Kyle Busch
  6. Martin Truex Jr.
  7. Jimmie Johnson
  8. Matt Kenseth
  9. Denny Hamlin
  10. Kyle Larson Continue reading

DraftKings Lineups: Phoenix I, 2017

joey logano photo

Sliced Bread appears in 29 of my top 30 DraftKings lineups for Phoenix I tomorrow. (photo courtesy nascar)

I’ve used my lineup optimizer to compile my top 30 DraftKings NASCAR driver lineups for tomorrow’s Phoenix race. To compile them, first I plugged my final driver rankings for tomorrow’s race and the starting lineup into my driver points projection model to project how many DraftKings points each driver will score at Phoenix tomorrow. Then I ran those points projections through a knapsack-problem optimizer algorithm I created in Google Sheets with the OpenSolver add-on, which churned through all possible driver combinations to calculate the 30 best lineups for tomorrow’s race.

The lineups are sorted in descending order of total predicted points scored, and the total predicted points have been rounded to the nearest hundredth. I posted them in a PDF file you can download and view for $3. Here’s the link: Phoenix I 2017 DraftKings Lineups

Note: No guarantee comes with my lineups, rankings, predictions, etc. Use them at your own risk. To get a feel for how the lineups look, check out my Kansas I 2016 DraftKings lineups.

Good luck today!

DraftKings Driver Values: Phoenix I, 2017

Paul Menard photo

Paul Menard offers nice DraftKings value at Phoenix I tomorrow in the $6K tier. (photo courtesy nascar)

Here are my DraftKings driver points and price/point predictions for tomorrow’s Phoenix race. To predict how many DraftKings points each driver will score tomorrow, I plugged my driver rankings for tomorrow’s race into my projection model, and the qualifying results/starting lineup. Then, to calculate each driver’s price/point, I simply divided each driver’s price by their predicted points.

The below table lists all drivers running tomorrow, and it’s sorted from lowest price/point to highest. If you’re on a small-screen device, scroll the table horizontally with a finger drag to see all the columns.

The table: Continue reading

Final Rankings: Phoenix I, 2017

joey logano photo

Joey Logano took over the top spot in my final Phoenix I driver rankings. (photo courtesy nascar)

Here are my final driver rankings for tomorrow’s race at Phoenix. I compiled them by crunching the practice and qualifying data from Phoenix on Friday and Saturday, and then melding it with the historical data:

  1. Joey Logano
  2. Kyle Busch
  3. Kyle Larson
  4. Kevin Harvick
  5. Brad Keselowski
  6. Martin Truex Jr.
  7. Chase Elliott
  8. Matt Kenseth
  9. Jimmie Johnson
  10. Denny Hamlin Continue reading

Early Rankings: Phoenix I, 2017

Kevin Harvick photo

Kevin Harvick tops my early Phoenix driver rankings. (photo courtesy nascar)

Update: I’ve posted my final Phoenix I driver rankings, which improve upon the below early rankings.

Here are my early driver rankings for this week’s NASCAR Sprint Cup race at Phoenix. I compiled them by crunching:

  • The loop data for the past 15 Sprint Cup races (excluding Daytona, Talladega, Sonoma and Watkins Glen);
  • the loop data for the past four races (excluding Daytona);
  • the loop data for the past four races at Phoenix;
  • the loop data for the past eight races at the other tracks in the Flats track group (i.e., Richmond, MartinsvilleIndyPocono and New Hampshire);
  • the practice and qualifying data for the past four races at Phoenix; and
  • the practice and qualifying data for past eight races at the aforementioned Flats.

The results:

  1. Kevin Harvick
  2. Joey Logano
  3. Kyle Busch
  4. Martin Truex Jr.
  5. Kyle Larson
  6. Brad Keselowski
  7. Matt Kenseth
  8. Jimmie Johnson
  9. Chase Elliott
  10. Denny Hamlin Continue reading

DraftKings Lineups: Las Vegas, 2017

Matt Kenseth photo

Matt Kenseth appears in every one of my top 30 optimized DraftKings lineups for Las Vegas tomorrow. (photo courtesy nascar)

I’ve used my lineup optimizer to compile my top 30 DraftKings NASCAR driver lineups for tomorrow’s Las Vegas race. To compile them, first I plugged my final driver rankings for tomorrow’s race and the starting lineup into my driver points projection model to project how many DraftKings points each driver will score at Las Vegas tomorrow. Then I ran those points projections through a knapsack-problem optimizer algorithm I created in Google Sheets with the OpenSolver add-on, which churned through all possible driver combinations to calculate the 30 best lineups for tomorrow’s race.

The lineups are sorted in descending order of total predicted points scored, and the total predicted points have been rounded to the nearest hundredth. I posted them in a PDF file you can download and view for $3. Here’s the link: Las Vegas 2017 DraftKings Lineups

Note: No guarantee comes with my lineups, rankings, predictions, etc. Use them at your own risk. To get a feel for how the lineups look, check out my Kansas I 2016 DraftKings lineups.

Good luck today!