Category Archives: Race Previews, Updates & Recaps

Final Rankings: Texas I, 2017

brad keselowski photo

Kez took over the top spot in my final Texas driver rankings. (photo courtesy nascar)

Here are my final driver rankings for tomorrow’s  Cup race at Texas. I compiled them by crunching the practice and qualifying data from Texas on Friday and Saturday, and then melding it with the historical data:

  1. Brad Keselowski
  2. Martin Truex Jr.
  3. Joey Logano
  4. Chase Elliott
  5. Kyle Larson
  6. Kevin Harvick
  7. Jimmie Johnson
  8. Kyle Busch
  9. Matt Kenseth
  10. Jamie McMurray Continue reading

Early Rankings: Texas I, 2017

Martin Truex Jr photo

Martin Truex Jr. tops my early Texas I driver rankings. (photo courtesy nascar)

Update: I’ve posted my final Texas driver rankings, which improve upon the below early rankings.

Here are my early driver rankings for Sunday’s NASCAR Cup race at Texas. I compiled them by crunching:

  • The loop data for the past 15 Cup races (excluding Daytona and Talladega);
  • the loop data for the past four races;
  • the loop data for the past four races at Texas;
  • the loop data for the past eight races at the other tracks in the Large Ovals track group (i.e., Fontana, Charlotte, Atlanta, Kansas, Chicago, Michigan and Kentucky);
  • the practice and qualifying data for the past four races at Texas; and
  • the practice and qualifying data for past eight races at the aforementioned Large Ovals.

The results:

  1. Martin Truex Jr.
  2. Chase Elliott
  3. Brad Keselowski
  4. Kyle Busch
  5. Joey Logano
  6. Kyle Larson
  7. Jimmie Johnson
  8. Kevin Harvick
  9. Matt Kenseth
  10. Erik Jones Continue reading

DraftKings Lineups: Martinsville I, 2017

Martin Truex Jr photo

Martin Truex Jr. appears in 25 of my top 30 optimized DraftKings lineups today. (photo courtesy nascar)

I’ve used my lineup optimizer to compile my top 30 DraftKings NASCAR driver lineups for today’s Martinsville race. To compile them, first I plugged my final driver rankings for today’s race and the starting lineup into my driver points projection model to project how many DraftKings points each driver will score at Martinsville today. Then I ran those points projections through a knapsack-problem optimizer algorithm I created in Google Sheets with the OpenSolver add-on, which churned through all possible driver combinations to calculate the 30 best lineups for today’s race.

The lineups are sorted in descending order of total predicted points scored, and the total predicted points have been rounded to the nearest hundredth. I posted them in a PDF file you can download and view for $3. Here’s the link: Martinsville I 2017 DraftKings Lineups

Note: No guarantee comes with my lineups, rankings, predictions, etc. Use them at your own risk. To get a feel for how the lineups look, check out my Kansas I 2016 DraftKings lineups.

Good luck today!

DraftKings Driver Values: Martinsville I, 2017

Ryan Newman photo

Ryan Newman offers good value today in DraftKing’s $7K tier. (photo courtesy nascar)

Here are my DraftKings driver points and price/point predictions for today’s Martinsville I race. To predict how many DraftKings points each driver will score today, I plugged my driver rankings for today’s race into my projection model, and the starting lineup. Then, to calculate each driver’s price/point, I simply divided each driver’s price by their predicted points.

The below table lists all drivers running today, and it’s sorted from lowest price/point to highest. If you’re on a small-screen device, scroll the table horizontally with a finger drag to see all the columns.

The table: Continue reading

Final Rankings: Martinsville I, 2017

Kyle Busch photo

Kyle Busch remains my pick to win Martinsville I in my final driver rankings. (photo courtesy nascar)

Here are my final driver rankings for tomorrow’s race at Martinsville. I compiled them by crunching the practice data from Martinsville on Friday and Saturday, and then melding it with the historical data:

  1. Kyle Busch
  2. Martin Truex Jr.
  3. Brad Keselowski
  4. Joey Logano
  5. Kyle Larson
  6. Denny Hamlin
  7. Ryan Newman
  8. Erik Jones
  9. Kevin Harvick
  10. Jamie McMurray Continue reading

Early Rankings: Martinsville I, 2017

Kyle Busch photo

Kyle Busch tops my early Martinsville I driver rankings. (photo courtesy nascar)

Update: I’ve posted my final Martinsville I driver rankings, which improve upon the below early rankings.

Here are my early driver rankings for this week’s NASCAR Cup race at Martinsville. I compiled them by crunching:

  • The loop data for the past 15 Cup races (excluding Daytona and Talladega);
  • the loop data for the past four races;
  • the loop data for the past four races at Martinsville;
  • the loop data for the past eight races at the other tracks in the Flats track group (i.e., RichmondPhoenixIndyPocono and New Hampshire);
  • the practice and qualifying data for the past four races at Martinsville; and
  • the practice and qualifying data for past eight races at the aforementioned Flats.

The results:

  1. Kyle Busch
  2. Martin Truex Jr.
  3. Joey Logano
  4. Brad Keselowski
  5. Kyle Larson
  6. Kevin Harvick
  7. Denny Hamlin
  8. Matt Kenseth
  9. Jimmie Johnson
  10. Erik Jones Continue reading

DraftKings Lineups: Fontana, 2017

joey logano photo

Sliced Bread appears in all 30 of my DraftKings lineups for Fontana today. (photo courtesy nascar)

I’ve used my lineup optimizer to compile my top 30 DraftKings NASCAR driver lineups for today’s Fontana race. To compile them, first I plugged my final driver rankings for today’s race and the starting lineup into my driver points projection model to project how many DraftKings points each driver will score at Fontana today. Then I ran those points projections through a knapsack-problem optimizer algorithm I created in Google Sheets with the OpenSolver add-on, which churned through all possible driver combinations to calculate the 30 best lineups for today’s race.

The lineups are sorted in descending order of total predicted points scored, and the total predicted points have been rounded to the nearest hundredth. I posted them in a PDF file you can download and view for $3. Here’s the link: Fontana 2017 DraftKings Lineups

Note: No guarantee comes with my lineups, rankings, predictions, etc. Use them at your own risk. To get a feel for how the lineups look, check out my Kansas I 2016 DraftKings lineups.

Good luck today!

DraftKings Driver Values: Fontana, 2017

AJ Allmendinger photo

To finish to bottom of your DraftKings lineups for Fontana tomorrow, take a look at AJ Allmendinger in the $6K tier. (photo courtesy nascar)

Here are my DraftKings driver points and price/point predictions for tomorrow’s Fontana race. To predict how many DraftKings points each driver will score tomorrow, I plugged my driver rankings for tomorrow’s race into my projection model, and the qualifying results/starting lineup. Then, to calculate each driver’s price/point, I simply divided each driver’s price by their predicted points.

The below table lists all drivers running tomorrow, and it’s sorted from lowest price/point to highest. If you’re on a small-screen device, scroll the table horizontally with a finger drag to see all the columns.

The table: Continue reading

Final Rankings: Fontana, 2017

Kevin Harvick photo

Kevin Harvick remains on top in my final Fontana driver rankings. (photo courtesy nascar)

Here are my final driver rankings for tomorrow’s NASCAR Cup race at Fontana. I compiled them by crunching the practice and qualifying data from Fontana on Friday and Saturday, and then melding it with the historical data:

  1. Kevin Harvick
  2. Chase Elliott
  3. Joey Logano
  4. Brad Keselowski
  5. Martin Truex Jr.
  6. Kyle Busch
  7. Matt Kenseth
  8. Jimmie Johnson
  9. Kyle Larson
  10. Denny Hamlin Continue reading

Early Rankings: Fontana, 2017

Kevin Harvick photo

Kevin Harvick tops my early Fontana driver rankings. (photo courtesy nascar)

Update: I’ve posted my final Fontana driver rankings, which improve upon the below early rankings.

Here are my early driver rankings for this week’s NASCAR Cup race at Fontana. I compiled them by crunching:

  • The loop data for the past 15 Cup races (excluding Daytona and Talladega);
  • the loop data for the past four races (excluding Daytona);
  • the loop data for the past four races at Fontana;
  • the loop data for the past eight races at the other tracks in the Large Ovals track group (i.e., Texas, Charlotte, Atlanta, Kansas, Chicago, Michigan and Kentucky);
  • the practice and qualifying data for the past four races at Fontana; and
  • the practice and qualifying data for past eight races at the aforementioned Large Ovals.

The results:

  1. Kevin Harvick
  2. Chase Elliott
  3. Joey Logano
  4. Brad Keselowski
  5. Kyle Busch
  6. Martin Truex Jr.
  7. Jimmie Johnson
  8. Matt Kenseth
  9. Denny Hamlin
  10. Kyle Larson Continue reading