Category Archives: Race Previews, Updates & Recaps

DraftKings Lineups: Richmond I, 2017

Martin Truex Jr photo

Martin Truex Jr. appears in every one of my optimized top 30 DraftKings lineups for Richmond I. (photo courtesy nascar)

I’ve used my lineup optimizer to compile my top 30 DraftKings NASCAR driver lineups for today’s Richmond I race. To compile them, first I plugged my final driver rankings for the race and the starting lineup into my driver points projection model to project how many DraftKings points each driver will score at Richmond I. Then I ran those points projections through a knapsack-problem optimizer algorithm I created in Google Sheets with the OpenSolver add-on, which churned through all possible driver combinations to calculate the 30 best lineups for the race.

The lineups are sorted in descending order of total predicted points scored, and the total predicted points have been rounded to the nearest hundredth. I posted them in a PDF file you can download and view for $3. Here’s the link: Richmond I 2017 DraftKings Lineups

Note: No guarantee comes with my lineups, rankings, predictions, etc. Use them at your own risk. To get a feel for how the lineups look, check out my Kansas I 2016 DraftKings lineups.

Good luck!

DraftKings Driver Values: Richmond I, 2017

Trevor Bayne photo

Trevor Bayne offers nice value in DraftKings’ $6K tier today at Richmond. (photo courtesy nascar)

Here are my DraftKings driver points and price/point predictions for today’s Richmond I race. To predict how many DraftKings points each driver will score today, I plugged my driver rankings for today’s race into my projection model, and the starting lineup. Then, to calculate each driver’s price/point, I simply divided each driver’s price by their predicted points.

The below table lists all drivers running today, and it’s sorted from lowest price/point to highest. If you’re on a small-screen device, scroll the table horizontally with a finger drag to see all the columns.

The table: Continue reading

Final Rankings: Richmond I, 2017

Martin Truex Jr photo

Martin Truex Jr. took over the top spot in my final Richmond I driver rankings. (photo courtesy nascar)

Here are my final driver rankings for today’s race at Richmond. I compiled them by crunching the practice and qualifying data from Richmond on Friday and Saturday, and then melding it with the historical data:

  1. Martin Truex Jr.
  2. Kyle Busch
  3. Matt Kenseth
  4. Joey Logano
  5. Kevin Harvick
  6. Kyle Larson
  7. Denny Hamlin
  8. Jimmie Johnson
  9. Chase Elliott
  10. Brad Keselowski Continue reading

Early Rankings: Richmond I, 2017

Kyle Busch photo

Kyle Busch tops my early Richmond I driver rankings. (photo courtesy nascar)

Update: I’ve posted my final driver rankings for Richmond I, which improve upon the below early rankings.

Here are my early driver rankings for this week’s NASCAR Cup race at Richmond. I compiled them by crunching:

  • The loop data for the past 15 Sprint Cup races (excluding Daytona and Talladega);
  • the loop data for the past four races;
  • the loop data for the past four races at Richmond;
  • the loop data for the past eight races at the other tracks in the Flats track group (i.e., Martinsville, Phoenix, Indy, Pocono and New Hampshire);
  • the practice and qualifying data for the past four races at Richmond; and
  • the practice and qualifying data for past eight races at the aforementioned Flats.

The results:

  1. Kyle Busch
  2. Martin Truex Jr.
  3. Joey Logano
  4. Brad Keselowski
  5. Kyle Larson
  6. Jimmie Johnson
  7. Kevin Harvick
  8. Matt Kenseth
  9. Denny Hamlin
  10. Chase Elliott Continue reading

DraftKings Lineups: Bristol I, 2017

Kyle Busch photo

Kyle Busch appears in every one of my top 30 optimized DraftKings lineups for Bristol I. (photo courtesy nascar)

I’ve used my lineup optimizer to compile my top 30 DraftKings NASCAR driver lineups for the Bristol I race. To compile them, first I plugged my final driver rankings for the race and the starting lineup into my driver points projection model to project how many DraftKings points each driver will score at Bristol I. Then I ran those points projections through a knapsack-problem optimizer algorithm I created in Google Sheets with the OpenSolver add-on, which churned through all possible driver combinations to calculate the 30 best lineups for the race.

The lineups are sorted in descending order of total predicted points scored, and the total predicted points have been rounded to the nearest hundredth. I posted them in a PDF file you can download and view for $3. Here’s the link: Bristol I 2017 DraftKings Lineups

Note: No guarantee comes with my lineups, rankings, predictions, etc. Use them at your own risk. To get a feel for how the lineups look, check out my Kansas I 2016 DraftKings lineups.

Good luck!

DraftKings Driver Values: Bristol I, 2017

AJ Allmendinger photo

To finish the bottom of your DraftKings lineups for Bristol tomorrow, take a look at AJ Allmendinger in the $6K tier. (photo courtesy nascar)

Here are my DraftKings driver points and price/point predictions for tomorrow’s Bristol I race. To predict how many DraftKings points each driver will score tomorrow, I plugged my driver rankings for tomorrow’s race into my projection model, and the starting lineup. Then, to calculate each driver’s price/point, I simply divided each driver’s price by their predicted points.

The below table lists all drivers running tomorrow, and it’s sorted from lowest price/point to highest. If you’re on a small-screen device, scroll the table horizontally with a finger drag to see all the columns.

The table: Continue reading

Final Rankings: Bristol I, 2017

Kyle Busch photo

Kyle Busch remains my pick to win Bristol I in my final driver rankings. (photo courtesy nascar)

Here are my final driver rankings for tomorrow’s NASCAR Cup race at Bristol. I compiled them by crunching the practice data from Bristol on Friday and Saturday (qualifying was rained out), and then melding it with the historical data:

  1. Kyle Busch
  2. Martin Truex Jr.
  3. Kevin Harvick
  4. Chase Elliott
  5. Joey Logano
  6. Denny Hamlin
  7. Kyle Larson
  8. Matt Kenseth
  9. Jimmie Johnson
  10. Erik Jones Continue reading

Early Rankings: Bristol I, 2017

Kyle Busch photo

Kyle Busch tops my early Bristol I driver rankings. (photo courtesy nascar)

Here are my early driver rankings for Sunday’s NASCAR Cup race at Bristol. I compiled them by crunching:

  • The loop data for the past 15 Sprint Cup races (excluding Daytona and Talladega);
  • the loop data for the past four races;
  • the loop data for the past four races at Bristol;
  • the loop data for the past five races at the other tracks in the Steeps track group (i.e., DoverDarlingtonLas Vegas and Homestead);
  • the practice and qualifying data for the past four races at Bristol; and
  • the practice and qualifying data for past five races at the aforementioned Steeps.

The results:

  1. Kyle Busch
  2. Martin Truex Jr.
  3. Kyle Larson
  4. Brad Keselowski
  5. Joey Logano
  6. Kevin Harvick
  7. Chase Elliott
  8. Jimmie Johnson
  9. Matt Kenseth
  10. Denny Hamlin Continue reading

DraftKings Lineups: Texas I, 2017

chase elliott photo

Chase Elliott appears in every one of my optimized top 30 DraftKings lineups for Texas I. (photo courtesy nascar)

I’ve used my lineup optimizer to compile my top 30 DraftKings NASCAR driver lineups for Sunday’s Texas I race. To compile them, first I plugged my final driver rankings for Sunday’s race and the starting lineup into my driver points projection model to project how many DraftKings points each driver will score at Texas I. Then I ran those points projections through a knapsack-problem optimizer algorithm I created in Google Sheets with the OpenSolver add-on, which churned through all possible driver combinations to calculate the 30 best lineups for Sunday’s race.

The lineups are sorted in descending order of total predicted points scored, and the total predicted points have been rounded to the nearest hundredth. I posted them in a PDF file you can download and view for $3. Here’s the link: Texas I 2017 DraftKings Lineups

Note: No guarantee comes with my lineups, rankings, predictions, etc. Use them at your own risk. To get a feel for how the lineups look, check out my Kansas I 2016 DraftKings lineups.

Good luck!

DraftKings Driver Values: Texas I, 2017

chase elliott photo

My numbers say Chase Elliott offers top DraftKings value at Texas I today. (photo courtesy nascar)

Here are my DraftKings driver points and price/point predictions for tomorrow’s Texas I race. To predict how many DraftKings points each driver will score tomorrow, I plugged my driver rankings for tomorrow’s race into my projection model, and the starting lineup. Then, to calculate each driver’s price/point, I simply divided each driver’s price by their predicted points.

The below table lists all drivers running tomorrow, and it’s sorted from lowest price/point to highest. If you’re on a small-screen device, scroll the table horizontally with a finger drag to see all the columns.

The table: Continue reading