Category Archives: Race Previews, Updates & Recaps

DraftKings Driver Values: Sonoma, 2017

Matt Kenseth photo

Matt Kenseth is a good DraftKings options in the $7K tier because he didn’t qualify (and therefore should score mega Place Differential points). (photo courtesy nascar)

Here are my DraftKings driver points and price/point predictions for tomorrow’s Sonoma race. To predict how many DraftKings points each driver will score tomorrow, I plugged my final driver rankings for tomorrow’s race into my projection model, and the starting lineup. Then, to calculate each driver’s price/point, I simply divided each driver’s price by their predicted points.

The below table lists all drivers running tomorrow, and it’s sorted from lowest price/point to highest. If you’re on a small-screen device, scroll the table horizontally with a finger drag to see all the columns.

The table: Continue reading

Final Rankings: Sonoma, 2017

Martin Truex Jr photo

Martin Truex Jr. remains my pick to win Sonoma in my final driver rankings. (photo courtesy nascar)

Here are my final driver rankings for tomorrow’s race at Sonoma. I compiled them by crunching the practice and qualifying data from Sonoma on Friday and Saturday, and then melding it with the historical data:

  1. Martin Truex Jr.
  2. AJ Allmendinger
  3. Kyle Busch
  4. Kyle Larson
  5. Jamie McMurray
  6. Kurt Busch
  7. Dale Earnhardt Jr.
  8. Kevin Harvick
  9. Clint Bowyer
  10. Joey Logano Continue reading

Early Rankings: Sonoma, 2017

Martin Truex Jr photo

Martin Truex Jr. tops my early Sonoma driver rankings. (photo courtesy nascar)

Update: I’ve posted my final Sonoma driver rankings, which improve upon the below early driver rankings.

Here are my early driver rankings for this week’s NASCAR Cup race at Sonoma. I compiled them by crunching:

  • The loop data for the past 15 Cup races (excluding Daytona and Talladega);
  • the loop data for the past four races at Sonoma;
  • the loop data for the past four races at Watkins Glen;
  • the practice and qualifying data for the past four races at Sonoma; and
  • the practice and qualifying data for past four races at Watkins Glen.

The results:

  1. Martin Truex Jr.
  2. Kurt Busch
  3. AJ Allmendinger
  4. Kyle Busch
  5. Kyle Larson
  6. Kevin Harvick
  7. Joey Logano
  8. Jimmie Johnson
  9. Jamie McMurray
  10. Dale Earnhardt Jr. Continue reading

DraftKings Driver Values: Michigan I, 2017

Ty Dillon photo

Ty Dillon offers good DraftKings value today in the $6K tier. (photo courtesy nascar)

Here are my DraftKings driver points and price/point predictions for today’s Michigan I race. To predict how many DraftKings points each driver will score today, I plugged my driver rankings for today’s race into my projection model, and the starting lineup. Then, to calculate each driver’s price/point, I simply divided each driver’s price by their predicted points.

The below table lists all drivers running today, and it’s sorted from lowest price/point to highest. If you’re on a small-screen device, scroll the table horizontally with a finger drag to see all the columns.

The table: Continue reading

Final Rankings: Michigan I, 2017

Martin Truex Jr photo

Martin Truex Jr. remains my pick to win Michigan I in my final driver rankings. (photo courtesy nascar)

Here are my final driver rankings for tomorrow’s race at Michigan. I compiled them by crunching the practice and qualifying data from Michigan on Friday and Saturday, and then melding it with the historical data:

  1. Martin Truex Jr.
  2. Kyle Larson
  3. Kyle Busch
  4. Kevin Harvick
  5. Joey Logano
  6. Brad Keselowski
  7. Ryan Blaney
  8. Jimmie Johnson
  9. Chase Elliott
  10. Denny Hamlin Continue reading

Early Rankings: Michigan I, 2017

Update: I’ve posted my final Michigan I driver rankings, which improve upon the below early rankings.

Here are my early driver rankings for Sunday’s NASCAR Cup race at Michigan. I compiled them by crunching:

  • The loop data for the past 15 Sprint Cup races (excluding Daytona and Talladega);
  • the loop data for the past four races;

    Martin Truex Jr photo

    Martin Truex Jr. tops my early Michigan I driver rankings. (photo courtesy nascar)

  • the loop data for the past four races at Michigan;
  • the loop data for the past seven races at other tracks in the Large Ovals track group (i.e., FontanaKansasTexasCharlotte and Kentucky;
  • the practice and qualifying data for the past four races at Michigan; and
  • the practice and qualifying data for past seven races at the aforementioned Large Ovals.

The results:

  1. Martin Truex Jr.
  2. Kevin Harvick
  3. Kyle Larson
  4. Kyle Busch
  5. Chase Elliott
  6. Matt Kenseth
  7. Joey Logano
  8. Brad Keselowski
  9. Jimmie Johnson
  10. Ryan Blaney Continue reading

Final Rankings: Pocono I, 2017

Kyle Busch photo

Kyle Busch took over the top spot in my final Pocono I driver rankings. (photo courtesy nascar)

Here are my final driver rankings for today’s race at Pocono. I compiled them by crunching the practice and qualifying data from Pocono on Friday and Saturday, and then melding it with the historical data:

  1. Kyle Busch
  2. Martin Truex Jr.
  3. Kyle Larson
  4. Matt Kenseth
  5. Kevin Harvick
  6. Brad Keselowski
  7. Joey Logano
  8. Jimmie Johnson
  9. Kurt Busch
  10. Denny Hamlin Continue reading

Early Rankings: Pocono I, 2017

Martin Truex Jr photo

Martin Truex Jr. tops my early Pocono I driver rankings. (photo courtesy nascar)

Update: I’ve posted my final Pocono I driver rankings, which improve upon the below early rankings.

Here are my early driver rankings for this week’s NASCAR Cup race at Pocono. I compiled them by crunching:

  • The loop data for the past 15 Cup races (excluding Daytona and Talladega);
  • the loop data for the past four races;
  • the loop data for the past four races at Pocono;
  • the loop data for the past eight races at the other tracks in the Flats track group (i.e., Martinsville, Phoenix, Indy, Richmond and New Hampshire);
  • the practice and qualifying data for the past four races at Pocono; and
  • the practice and qualifying data for past eight races at the aforementioned Flats.

The results:

  1. Martin Truex Jr.
  2. Kyle Busch
  3. Kevin Harvick
  4. Matt Kenseth
  5. Kyle Larson
  6. Joey Logano
  7. Brad Keselowski
  8. Jimmie Johnson
  9. Denny Hamlin
  10. Chase Elliott Continue reading

DraftKings Lineups: Dover I, 2017

Kevin Harvick photo

Happy Harvick appears in every one of my optimized top 30 DraftKings lineups for Dover I. (photo courtesy nascar)

I’ve used my lineup optimizer to compile my top 30 DraftKings NASCAR driver lineups for today’s Dover I race. To compile them, first I plugged my final driver rankings for the race and the starting lineup into my driver points projection model to project how many DraftKings points each driver will score at Dover I. Then I ran those points projections through a knapsack-problem optimizer algorithm I created in Google Sheets with the OpenSolver add-on, which churned through all possible driver combinations to calculate the 30 best lineups for the race.

The lineups are sorted in descending order of total predicted points scored, and the total predicted points have been rounded to the nearest hundredth. I posted them in a PDF file you can download and view for $3. Here’s the link: Dover I 2017 DraftKings Lineups

Note: No guarantee comes with my lineups, rankings, predictions, etc. Use them at your own risk. To get a feel for how the lineups look, check out my Kansas I 2016 DraftKings lineups.

Good luck!


DraftKings Driver Values: Dover I, 2017

AJ Allmendinger photo

To finish to bottom of your Dover I DraftKings lineups, take a look at the Dinger in the $6K tier. (photo courtesy nascar)

Here are my DraftKings driver points and price/point predictions for today’s Dover I race. To predict how many DraftKings points each driver will score today, I plugged my driver rankings for tonight’s race into my projection model, and the starting lineup. Then, to calculate each driver’s price/point, I simply divided each driver’s price by their predicted points.

The below table lists all drivers running today, and it’s sorted from lowest price/point to highest. If you’re on a small-screen device, scroll the table horizontally with a finger drag to see all the columns.

The table: Continue reading