DraftKings Driver Values: Dover II, 2015

kasey kahne photo

Kasey Kahne offers terrific DraftKings value today. (photo courtesy nascar)

Here are my DraftKings driver points and price/point predictions for today’s race at Dover. To predict how many DraftKings points each driver will score today, I plugged my driver rankings for today’s race into my projection model, and the starting lineup. Then, to calculate each driver’s price/point, I simply divided each driver’s price by their predicted points.

My points projection model is a work in progress, so don’t take the below info as gospel. Still, I think it can provide big-picture help when crafting DraftKings lineups.

Note: The below table lists all drivers running today, and it’s sorted from lowest price/point to highest. If you’re on a small screen device, scroll the table horizontally with a finger drag to see all the columns:

Drivers DraftKings Price Predicted Points Price/Point
Kevin Harvick $11,000 103.41 $106.38
Brad Keselowski $9,900 78.57 $126.00
Joey Logano $9,600 68.91 $139.31
Kasey Kahne $7,600 49.85 $152.46
Denny Hamlin $9,800 57.36 $170.85
Jimmie Johnson $11,200 65.00 $172.31
Carl Edwards $9,500 53.58 $177.32
Kyle Larson $8,100 45.53 $177.91
Dale Earnhardt Jr $8,500 47.51 $178.90
Ricky Stenhouse Jr $5,800 31.60 $183.56
Kurt Busch $9,000 47.59 $189.13
Kyle Busch $10,200 50.69 $201.21
Aric Almirola $6,100 29.29 $208.24
Jamie McMurray $6,800 32.41 $209.83
Matt Kenseth $10,100 45.16 $223.66
Clint Bowyer $6,900 29.78 $231.72
Martin Truex Jr $9,300 39.71 $234.22
Jeff Gordon $8,400 34.36 $244.46
Greg Biffle $6,700 26.90 $249.10
Tony Stewart $6,700 24.89 $269.22
David Ragan $6,400 23.59 $271.26
Ryan Newman $6,900 24.00 $287.49
AJ Allmendinger $6,100 20.75 $293.99
Paul Menard $6,800 22.94 $296.41
Justin Allgaier $5,700 19.13 $297.96
Austin Dillon $7,200 23.29 $309.20
Michael Annett $5,500 16.31 $337.18
Sam Hornish Jr $6,000 17.44 $344.13
Casey Mears $6,000 15.47 $387.97
Cole Whitt $5,600 13.93 $402.02
Trevor Bayne $5,900 14.04 $420.22
David Gilliland $5,700 12.35 $461.40
Alex Bowman $5,500 11.31 $486.22
Josh Wise $5,500 11.21 $490.78
Danica Patrick $5,900 11.09 $531.95
J.J. Yeley $5,300 8.13 $652.23
Landon Cassill $5,700 7.29 $781.81
Brett Moffitt $5,400 6.23 $867.09
Matt DiBenedetto $5,500 5.19 $1,060.60
Reed Sorenson $5,400 4.08 $1,322.23
Timmy Hill $5,300 1.02 $5,190.98
Alex Kennedy $5,300 -1.94 n/a
Jeb Burton $5,400 -0.96 n/a

2 thoughts on “DraftKings Driver Values: Dover II, 2015

  1. Ray Miller

    Thank you for all the work it takes you each race. Can’t imagine the procedure, records, it must take.
    Do know you rankings are predictions based on best prior info. Most importantly, your completeness gives us a base for all formats. Just like actual race results, a list of 43. Works for all fantasy games.
    Wondering after practices/qualifying and listening to driver interviews, how much influence to your final predicts. Keep up the good work.

  2. Jed Henson Post author

    Thanks Ray! And good question. After practice/qualifying each week, I collect that data and merge it with the early rankings data. During that merge, I weight the new data from 35%-45% (compared to the early data) depending on the practice/Q format that week, whether they got all the practice/Q in, etc. I weight it that way because a study I performed in 2013 says that’s optimum. I wrote that study up, and if you really want to dive in, here’s the link:

    http://nascarpredict.com/2013/01/20/nascar-handicapping-how-much-is-practice-qualifying-worth/

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