Early Rankings: Kansas I, 2016

Kevin Harvick photo

Kevin Harvick tops my early Kansas I driver rankings. (photo courtesy nascar)

Here are my early driver rankings for this week’s NASCAR Sprint Cup race at Kansas. I compiled them by crunching:

  • The loop data for the past 15 Sprint Cup races (excluding Daytona and Talladega);
  • the loop data for the past four races;
  • the loop data for the past four races at Kansas;
  • the loop data for the past eight races at other tracks in the Large Ovals track group (i.e., Michigan, Kentucky, Fontana, Charlotte, Texas, Atlanta and Chicagoland);
  • the practice and qualifying data for the past four races at Kansas; and
  • the practice and qualifying data for past eight races at the aforementioned Large Ovals.

The results:

  1. Kevin Harvick
  2. Joey Logano
  3. Carl Edwards
  4. Kyle Busch
  5. Martin Truex Jr.
  6. Jimmie Johnson
  7. Brad Keselowski
  8. Matt Kenseth
  9. Dale Earnhardt Jr.
  10. Kurt Busch Continue reading

DraftKings Lineups: Talladega I, 2016

michael mcdowell photo

My DraftKings NASCAR lineup optimizer suggests Michael McDowell can help complete our Talladega I lineups.

Here are my top 20 DraftKings NASCAR driver lineups for today’s race at Talladega. To compile them, first I plugged my final driver rankings for today’s race and Saturday’s qualifying results into my driver points projection model to project how many DraftKings points each driver will score at Talladega I. Then I ran those points projections through an algorithm I created in Google Sheets with the OpenSolver add-on, which chewed through all possible driver combinations to spit out the 20 best lineups for today’s race.

The results are in descending order, and the total predicted points have been rounded to the nearest hundredth. If you’re on a small-screen device, scroll the table horizontally with a finger-drag to see all the columns.

The lineups: Continue reading

DraftKings Driver Values: Talladega I, 2016

Paul Menard photo

Whoa, Paul Menard–yes, Paul Menard!–appears to offer top DraftKings value at Talladega tomorrow. (photo courtesy nascar)

Here are my DraftKings driver points and price/point predictions for tomorrow’s race at Talladega. To predict how many DraftKings points each driver will score tomorrow, I plugged my final driver rankings for tomorrow’s race into my projection model, and Saturday’s qualifying results. Then, to calculate each driver’s price/point, I simply divided each driver’s price by their predicted points.

The below table lists all drivers running tomorrow, and it’s sorted from lowest price/point to highest. If you’re on a small screen device, scroll the table horizontally with a finger drag to see all the columns.

The table: Continue reading

Final Rankings: Talladega I, 2016

Dale Earnhardt Jr. photo

Dale Jr. remains my pick to win tomorrow in my final Talladega I driver rankings. (photo courtesy nascar)

Here are my final driver rankings for tomorrow’s race at Talladega. I compiled them by crunching the qualifying data from Talladega on Saturday, and then melding it with the historical data:

  1. Dale Earnhardt Jr.
  2. Jimmie Johnson
  3. Denny Hamlin
  4. Matt Kenseth
  5. Kasey Kahne
  6. Paul Menard
  7. Kyle Busch
  8. Brad Keselowski
  9. Austin Dillon
  10. Carl Edwards Continue reading

Early Rankings: Talladega I, 2016

Dale Earnhardt Jr. photo

Dale Jr. tops my early Talladega I driver rankings. (photo courtesy nascar)

Update: I’ve posted my final Talladega I driver rankings.

Here are my early driver rankings for this week’s race at Talladega. I compiled them by crunching the loop data for the past four plate races, the qualifying data from past three plate races, and the loop data for last year’s Daytona Duels (albeit weighted very lightly). Those metrics reflect speed, the ability to pass and the ability (and inclination) to run a lot of laps up front.

The results:

  1. Dale Earnhardt Jr.
  2. Jimmie Johnson
  3. Denny Hamlin
  4. Kevin Harvick
  5. Matt Kenseth
  6. Kyle Busch
  7. Kasey Kahne
  8. Paul Menard
  9. Ryan Blaney
  10. Kurt Busch Continue reading

DraftKings Lineups: Richmond I, 2016

Martin Truex Jr photo

Martin Truex Jr. appears in all 20 of my optimized Richmond I DraftKings lineups. (photo courtesy nascar)

Here are my top 20 DraftKings NASCAR driver lineups for today’s race at Richmond. To compile them, first I plugged my final driver rankings for today’s race and Friday’s qualifying results into my driver points projection model to project how many DraftKings points each driver will score at Richmond I. Then I ran those points projections through an algorithm I created in Google Sheets with the OpenSolver add-on, which chewed through all possible driver combinations to spit out the 20 best lineups for today’s race.

The results are in descending order, and the total predicted points have been rounded to the nearest hundredth. If you’re on a small-screen device, scroll the table horizontally with a finger-drag to see all the columns.

The lineups: Continue reading

DraftKings Driver Values: Richmond I, 2016

ryan blaney photo

Ryan Blaney looks good in DraftKings’ $6K range today at Richmond.

Here are my DraftKings driver points and price/point predictions for today’s race at Richmond. To predict how many DraftKings points each driver will score today, I plugged my driver rankings for today’s race into my projection model, and Friday’s qualifying results (which in this case is actually the Practice 1 results because qualifying was cancelled). Then, to calculate each driver’s price/point, I simply divided each driver’s price by their predicted points.

The below table lists all drivers running tomorrow, and it’s sorted from lowest price/point to highest. If you’re on a small screen device, scroll the table horizontally with a finger drag to see all the columns.

The table: Continue reading

Final Rankings: Richmond I, 2016

Kevin Harvick photo

Kevin Harvick remains my pick to win Richmond I tomorrow. (photo courtesy nascar)

Here are my final driver rankings for tomorrow’s race at Richmond. I compiled them by crunching the practice and qualifying data from Richmond on Friday and Saturday, and then melding it with the historical data:

  1. Kevin Harvick
  2. Kyle Busch
  3. Jimmie Johnson
  4. Carl Edwards
  5. Joey Logano
  6. Brad Keselowski
  7. Matt Kenseth
  8. Kurt Busch
  9. Martin Truex Jr.
  10. Denny Hamlin Continue reading

Early Rankings: Richmond I, 2016

Kevin Harvick photo

Kevin Harvick tops my early Richmond I driver rankings. (photo courtesy nascar)

Update: I posted my final Richmond I driver rankings today.

Here are my early driver rankings for this week’s NASCAR Sprint Cup race at Richmond. I compiled them by crunching:

  • The loop data for the past 15 Sprint Cup races (excluding Daytona and Talladega);
  • the loop data for the past four races;
  • the loop data for the past four races at Richmond;
  • the loop data for the past seven races at the other tracks in the Flats track group (i.e., Martinsville, Phoenix, Indy, Pocono and New Hampshire);
  • the practice and qualifying data for the past four races at Richmond; and
  • the practice and qualifying data for past seven races at the aforementioned Flats.

The results:

  1. Kevin Harvick
  2. Joey Logano
  3. Kyle Busch
  4. Brad Keselowski
  5. Carl Edwards
  6. Matt Kenseth
  7. Jimmie Johnson
  8. Kurt Busch
  9. Martin Truex Jr.
  10. Dale Earnhardt Jr. Continue reading

DraftKings Lineups: Bristol I, 2016

Kyle Busch photo

My lineup optimizer included KyBu in 14 of its 20 top DraftKings lineups for Bristol I today. (photo courtesy nascar)

Here are my top 20 DraftKings NASCAR driver lineups for today’s race at Bristol. To compile them, first I plugged my final driver rankings for today’s race and Friday’s qualifying results into my driver points projection model to project how many DraftKings points each driver will score at Bristol I. Then I ran those points projections through an algorithm I created in Google Sheets with the OpenSolver add-on, which chewed through all possible driver combinations to spit out the 20 best lineups for tomorrow’s race.

The results are in descending order, and the total predicted points have been rounded to the nearest hundredth. If you’re on a small-screen device, scroll the table horizontally with a finger-drag to see all the columns.

The lineups: Continue reading