Early Rankings: Darlington, 2016

Kevin Harvick photo

Kevin Harvick tops my early Darlington driver rankings. (photo courtesy nascar)

Here are my early driver rankings for this week’s NASCAR Sprint Cup race at Darlington. I compiled them by crunching:

  • The loop data for the past 15 Sprint Cup races (excluding Daytona Talladega, Sonoma and Watkins Glen;
  • the loop data for the past four races (excluding Daytona);
  • the loop data for the past four races at Darlington;
  • the loop data for the past six races at the other tracks in the Steeps track group (i.e., Bristol, Dover, Homestead and Las Vegas);
  • the practice and qualifying data for the past four races at Darlington; and
  • the practice and qualifying data for past six races at the aforementioned Steeps.

The results:

  1. Kevin Harvick
  2. Kyle Busch
  3. Carl Edwards
  4. Denny Hamlin
  5. Martin Truex Jr.
  6. Joey Logano
  7. Kurt Busch
  8. Matt Kenseth
  9. Brad Keselowski
  10. Jimmie Johnson Continue reading

DraftKings Lineups: Michigan II, 2016

Martin Truex Jr photo

Martin Truex Jr. appears in every one of my DraftKings lineup optimizer’s top 30 lineups for today’s Michigan II race. (photo courtesy nascar)

I’ve used my lineup optimizer to compile my top 30 DraftKings NASCAR driver lineups for today’s Michigan II race. To compile them, first I plugged my final driver rankings for today’s race and Friday’s qualifying results into my driver points projection model to project how many DraftKings points each driver will score at Michigan today. Then I ran those points projections through an algorithm I created in Google Sheets with the OpenSolver add-on, which churned through all possible driver combinations to calculate the 30 best lineups for today’s race.

The lineups are sorted in descending order of total predicted points scored, and the total predicted points have been rounded to the nearest hundredth. I posted them in a PDF file you can download and view for $1. Here’s the link: Michigan II 2016 DraftKings Lineups

Note: No guarantee comes with my lineups, rankings, predictions, etc. Use them at your own risk. To get a feel for how the lineups look, check out my Kansas I 2016 DraftKings lineups.

Good luck today!

DraftKings Driver Values: Michigan II, 2016

Ricky Stenhouse Jr photo

Ricky Stenhouse Jr offers good value in DraftKings’ $6K range today at Michigan. (photo courtesy nascar)

Here are my DraftKings driver points and price/point predictions for today’s Michigan II race. To predict how many DraftKings points each driver will score today, I plugged my driver rankings for today’s race into my projection model, and Friday’s qualifying results. Then, to calculate each driver’s price/point, I simply divided each driver’s price by their predicted points.

The below table lists all drivers running today, and it’s sorted from lowest price/point to highest. If you’re on a small-screen device, scroll the table horizontally with a finger drag to see all the columns.

The table: Continue reading

Final Rankings: Michigan II, 2016

Kevin Harvick photo

Kevin Harvick remains my pick to win Michigan II today in my final driver rankings. (photo courtesy nascar)

Here are my final driver rankings for today’s race at Michigan. I compiled them by crunching the practice and qualifying data from Michigan on Friday and Saturday, and then melding it with the historical data:

  1. Kevin Harvick
  2. Martin Truex Jr.
  3. Joey Logano
  4. Carl Edwards
  5. Jimmie Johnson
  6. Denny Hamlin
  7. Brad Keselowski
  8. Kyle Busch
  9. Matt Kenseth
  10. Kurt Busch Continue reading

Early Rankings: Michigan II, 2016

Kevin Harvick photo

Kevin Harvick tops my early Michigan II driver rankings. (photo courtesy nascar)

Update: I’ve posted my final Michigan II driver rankings, which improve upon these early rankings.

Here are my early driver rankings for this week’s NASCAR Sprint Cup race at Michigan. I compiled them by crunching:

  • The loop data for the past 15 Sprint Cup races (excluding DaytonaTalladega, Watkins Glen and Sonoma;
  • the loop data for the past four races;
  • the loop data for the past four races at Michigan;
  • the loop data for the past seven races at other tracks in the Large Ovals track group (i.e., FontanaKansasTexasCharlotte, Atlanta, Chicagoland and Kentucky;
  • the practice and qualifying data for the past four races at Michigan; and
  • the practice and qualifying data for past eight races at the aforementioned Large Ovals.

The results:

  1. Kevin Harvick
  2. Martin Truex Jr.
  3. Carl Edwards
  4. Joey Logano
  5. Kyle Busch
  6. Brad Keselowski
  7. Matt Kenseth
  8. Denny Hamlin
  9. Jimmie Johnson
  10. Kurt Busch Continue reading

Fantasy NASCAR Alert: No Annett at Bristol Tonight

Michael Annett photo

Michael Annett will not drive tonight at Bristol. (photo courtesy nascar)

Due to illness, Michael Annett will not drive the 46 car tonight at Bristol. Justin Allgaier will take his place. Annett will therefore earn zero DraftKings points tonight per DraftKings’ Position Eligibility rules:

“Driver eligibility determinations and decisions around driver inclusion into the player pool are at the sole discretion of DraftKings. If a driver withdraws, gets substituted out before the race, or does not end up participating in the race for any reason, that driver will receive zero fantasy points.”

DraftKings Lineups: Bristol II, 2016

Kevin Harvick photo

Kevin Harvick appears in every one of my top 30 DraftKings lineups for Bristol II tonight. (photo courtesy nascar)

I’ve used my lineup optimizer to compile my top 30 DraftKings NASCAR driver lineups for tonight’s Bristol II race. To compile them, first I plugged my final driver rankings for tonight’s race and Saturday’s qualifying results into my driver points projection model to project how many DraftKings points each driver will score at Bristol tonight. Then I ran those points projections through an algorithm I created in Google Sheets with the OpenSolver add-on, which chewed through all possible driver combinations to spit out the 30 best lineups for today’s race.

The lineups are sorted in descending order of total predicted points scored, and the total predicted points have been rounded to the nearest hundredth. I posted them in a PDF file you can download and view for $1. Here’s the link: Bristol II 2016 DraftKings Lineups

Note: No guarantee comes with my lineups, rankings, predictions, etc. Use them at your own risk. To get a feel for how the lineups look, check out my Kansas I 2016 DraftKings lineups.

Good luck tonight!

DraftKings Driver Values: Bristol II, 2016

Kasey Kahne photo

Kasey Kahne offers good DraftKings value at Bristol II tonight in the $7K tier . (photo courtesy nascar)

Here are my DraftKings driver points and price/point predictions for tonight’s Bristol II race. To predict how many DraftKings points each driver will score tonight, I plugged my driver rankings for tonight’s race into my projection model, and Friday’s qualifying results. Then, to calculate each driver’s price/point, I simply divided each driver’s price by their predicted points.

The below table lists all drivers running tonight, and it’s sorted from lowest price/point to highest. If you’re on a small-screen device, scroll the table horizontally with a finger drag to see all the columns.

The table: Continue reading

Final Rankings: Bristol II, 2016

Carl Edwards photo

Carl Edwards took over the top spot in my final Bristol II driver rankings. (photo courtesy nascar)

Here are my final driver rankings for tonight’s race at Bristol. I compiled them by crunching the practice and qualifying data from Bristol on Friday, and then melding it with the historical data:

  1. Carl Edwards
  2. Kyle Busch
  3. Kevin Harvick
  4. Matt Kenseth
  5. Denny Hamlin
  6. Brad Keselowski
  7. Joey Logano
  8. Martin Truex Jr.
  9. Kurt Busch
  10. Ryan Blaney Continue reading

Early Rankings: Bristol II, 2016

Kevin Harvick photo

Kevin Harvick tops my early Bristol II driver rankings. (photo courtesy nascar)

Update: I’ve posted my final Bristol II driver rankings, which improve upon these early rankings.

Here are my early driver rankings for this week’s NASCAR Sprint Cup race at Bristol. I compiled them by crunching:

  • The loop data for the past 15 Sprint Cup races (excluding DaytonaTalladega, Watkins Glen and Sonoma;
  • the loop data for the past four races;
  • the loop data for the past four races at Bristol;
  • the loop data for the past five races at the other tracks in the Steeps track group (i.e., DoverDarlingtonLas Vegas and Homestead);
  • the practice and qualifying data for the past four races at Bristol; and
  • the practice and qualifying data for past five races at the aforementioned Steeps.

The results:

  1. Kevin Harvick
  2. Carl Edwards
  3. Kyle Busch
  4. Joey Logano
  5. Matt Kenseth
  6. Brad Keselowski
  7. Kurt Busch
  8. Denny Hamlin
  9. Martin Truex Jr.
  10. Jimmie Johnson Continue reading