Early Rankings: Dover II, 2016

Kevin Harvick photo

Kevin Harvick tops my early Dover II driver rankings. (photo courtesy nascar)

Here are my early driver rankings for this week’s NASCAR Sprint Cup race at Dover. I compiled them by crunching:

  • The loop data for the past 15 Sprint Cup races (excluding Daytona, Watkins Glen, Sonoma and Talladega);
  • the loop data for the past four races;
  • the loop data for the past four races at Dover;
  • the loop data for the past five races at the other tracks in the Steeps track group (i.e., BristolDarlingtonLas Vegas and Homestead);
  • the practice and qualifying data for the past four races at Dover; and
  • the practice and qualifying data for past five races at the aforementioned Steeps.

The results:

  1. Kevin Harvick
  2. Martin Truex Jr.
  3. Denny Hamlin
  4. Kyle Busch
  5. Matt Kenseth
  6. Brad Keselowski
  7. Carl Edwards
  8. Joey Logano
  9. Jimmie Johnson
  10. Chase Elliott Continue reading

Early Rankings: New Hampshire II, 2016

Here are my early driver rankings for this week’s NASCAR Sprint Cup race at New Hampshire. I compiled them by crunching:

  • The loop data for the past 15 Sprint Cup races (excluding DaytonaTalladega, Watkins Glen and Sonoma);
  • the loop data for the past four races;
  • the loop data for the past four races at New Hampshire;

    Kevin Harvick photo

    Kevin Harvick tops my early New Hampshire II driver rankings. (photo courtesy nascar)

  • the loop data for the past eight races at the other tracks in the Flats track group (i.e., Martinsville, Phoenix, Indy, Pocono and Richmond);
  • the practice and qualifying data for the past four races at New Hampshire; and
  • the practice and qualifying data for past eight races at the aforementioned Flats.

The results:

  1. Kevin Harvick
  2. Kyle Busch
  3. Brad Keselowski
  4. Denny Hamlin
  5. Joey Logano
  6. Matt Kenseth
  7. Martin Truex Jr.
  8. Carl Edwards
  9. Jimmie Johnson
  10. Kyle Larson Continue reading

DraftKings Lineups: Chicagoland, 2016

ryan blaney photo

Look at Ryan Blaney in DraftKings’ $7K tier today at Chicagoland for help filling out your lineup. (photo courtesy nascar)

I’ve used my lineup optimizer to compile my top 30 DraftKings NASCAR driver lineups for today’s Chicagoland race. To compile them, first I plugged my final driver rankings for today’s race and the starting lineup into my driver points projection model to project how many DraftKings points each driver will score at Chicagoland today. Then I ran those points projections through an algorithm I created in Google Sheets with the OpenSolver add-on, which churned through all possible driver combinations to calculate the 30 best lineups for today’s race.

The lineups are sorted in descending order of total predicted points scored, and the total predicted points have been rounded to the nearest hundredth. I posted them in a PDF file you can download and view for $1. Here’s the link: Chicagoland 2016 DraftKings Lineups

Note: No guarantee comes with my lineups, rankings, predictions, etc. Use them at your own risk. To get a feel for how the lineups look, check out my Kansas I 2016 DraftKings lineups.

Good luck today!

DraftKings Driver Values: Chicagoland, 2016

jimmie johnson photo

Jimmie Johnson offers top DraftKings value at Chicagoland tomorrow. (photo courtesy nascar)

Here are my DraftKings driver points and price/point predictions for tomorrow’s Chicagoland race. To predict how many DraftKings points each driver will score tomorrow, I plugged my driver rankings for tomorrow’s race into my projection model, and the starting lineup (qualifying was canceled). Then, to calculate each driver’s price/point, I simply divided each driver’s price by their predicted points.

The below table lists all drivers running tomorrow, and it’s sorted from lowest price/point to highest. If you’re on a small-screen device, scroll the table horizontally with a finger drag to see all the columns.

The table: Continue reading

Final Rankings: Chicagoland, 2016

Martin Truex Jr photo

Martin Truex Jr. remains my pick to win in my final Chicagoland driver rankings. (photo courtesy nascar)

Here are my final driver rankings for tomorrow’s race at Chicagoland. I compiled them by crunching the practice data from Chicagoland on Friday and Saturday, and then melding it with the historical data:

  1. Martin Truex Jr.
  2. Jimmie Johnson
  3. Kyle Busch
  4. Brad Keselowski
  5. Carl Edwards
  6. Kevin Harvick
  7. Chase Elliott
  8. Joey Logano
  9. Kyle Larson
  10. Kurt Busch Continue reading

Early Rankings: Chicagoland, 2016

Martin Truex Jr photo

Martin Truex Jr. tops my early Chicagoland driver rankings. (photo courtesy nascar)

Update: I’ve posted my final Chicagoland driver rankings, which improve upon the below early rankings.

Here are my early driver rankings for this week’s NASCAR Sprint Cup race at Chicagoland. I compiled them by crunching:

  • The loop data for the past 15 Sprint Cup races (excluding Daytona, Talladega, Sonoma and Watkins Glen);
  • the loop data for the past four races;
  • the loop data for the past four races at Chicagoland;
  • the loop data for the past eight races at other tracks in the Large Ovals track group (i.e., Michigan, Kentucky, Fontana, Charlotte, Texas, Atlanta and Kansas);
  • the practice and qualifying data for the past four races at Chicagoland; and
  • the practice and qualifying data for past eight races at the aforementioned Large Ovals.

The results:

  1. Martin Truex Jr.
  2. Kevin Harvick
  3. Brad Keselowski
  4. Jimmie Johnson
  5. Kyle Busch
  6. Joey Logano
  7. Denny Hamlin
  8. Carl Edwards
  9. Matt Kenseth
  10. Chase Elliott Continue reading

DraftKings Lineups: Richmond II, 2016

Paul Menard photo

Look to Paul Menard for help filling the bottom of your Richmond II DraftKings lineups tonight. (photo courtesy nascar)

I’ve used my lineup optimizer to compile my top 30 DraftKings NASCAR driver lineups for tonight’s Richmond II race. To compile them, first I plugged my final driver rankings for tonight’s race and the starting lineup into my driver points projection model to project how many DraftKings points each driver will score at Richmond tonight. Then I ran those points projections through an algorithm I created in Google Sheets with the OpenSolver add-on, which churned through all possible driver combinations to calculate the 30 best lineups for tonight’s race.

The lineups are sorted in descending order of total predicted points scored, and the total predicted points have been rounded to the nearest hundredth. I posted them in a PDF file you can download and view for $1. Here’s the link: Richmond II 2016 DraftKings Lineups

Note: No guarantee comes with my lineups, rankings, predictions, etc. Use them at your own risk. To get a feel for how the lineups look, check out my Kansas I 2016 DraftKings lineups.

Good luck tonight!

DraftKings Driver Values: Richmond II, 2016

kasey kahne photo

Kasey Kahne offers good DraftKings value tonight in the $7K tier. (photo courtesy nascar)

Here are my DraftKings driver points and price/point predictions for tonight’s Richmond II race. To predict how many DraftKings points each driver will score tonight, I plugged my driver rankings for tonight’s race into my projection model, and Friday’s qualifying results. Then, to calculate each driver’s price/point, I simply divided each driver’s price by their predicted points.

The below table lists all drivers running tonight, and it’s sorted from lowest price/point to highest. If you’re on a small-screen device, scroll the table horizontally with a finger drag to see all the columns.

The table: Continue reading

Final Rankings: Richmond II, 2016

Kevin Harvick photo

Kevin Harvick remains my pick to win Richmond II in my final driver rankings. (photo courtesy nascar)

Here are my final driver rankings for tonight’s race at Richmond. I compiled them by crunching the practice and qualifying data from Richmond on Friday, and then melding it with the historical data:

  1. Kevin Harvick
  2. Kyle Busch
  3. Denny Hamlin
  4. Matt Kenseth
  5. Carl Edwards
  6. Martin Truex Jr.
  7. Brad Keselowski
  8. Kurt Busch
  9. Joey Logano
  10. Jimmie Johnson Continue reading

Mid-Week Rankings: Richmond II, 2016

Kevin Harvick photo

Kevin Harvick tops my mid-week Richmond II driver rankings. (photo courtesy nascar)

Update: I’ve posted my final Richmond II driver rankings, which improve upon the below early rankings.

Here are my mid-week driver rankings for this week’s NASCAR Sprint Cup race at Richmond. I compiled them by crunching:

  • The loop data for the past 15 Sprint Cup races (excluding Daytona, Talladega, Sonoma and Watkins Glen);
  • the loop data for the past four races;
  • the loop data for the past four races at Richmond;
  • the loop data for the past seven races at four other tracks in the Flats track group (i.e., MartinsvillePhoenixPocono, Indy and New Hampshire);
  • the practice and qualifying data for the past four races at Richmond; and
  • the practice and qualifying data for past six races at the aforementioned Flats.

The results:

  1. Kevin Harvick
  2. Kyle Busch
  3. Brad Keselowski
  4. Joey Logano
  5. Carl Edwards
  6. Matt Kenseth
  7. Kurt Busch
  8. Denny Hamlin
  9. Jimmie Johnson
  10. Martin Truex Jr. Continue reading